4939 Sherwood Rd · Las Cruces, NM 88012

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2008 4,574 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very well maintained and ready for you! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home includes tile flooring throughout. Open kitchen with island, breakfast bar & all appliances. Washer, Dryer and water softener included. Great Price, location and won't last long! 2 car garage and fully landscaped front and backyard. Contact us for showing today. Great interest rates, programs and closing cost assistance available!

Key facts

• Refrigerated air
• Spacious kitchen
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• REFRIGERATED AIR
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: GPS
• Financial info: Details not provided
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Rincon Hills Phase 3

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: Details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built details not provided
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Lot about 0.11 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Details not provided
• Flooring: Details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Double pane windows; Low emissivity windows; Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in hall; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-614/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,052 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-39,698
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-35,312
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,396/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,795

Max offer price $220,961

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $14	+0% $-51	+5% $-116	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-120	+0% $-51	+5% $17	+10% $86
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $7	base $-51	+0.5pp $-111	+1.0pp $-171

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4942 Sherwood Rd Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,625	$1.18	14d	1	0.02mi
4950 Ortega Rd Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1035	$1,475	$1.43	22d	1	0.03mi
5095 Kensington Way Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,525	$1.52	44d	1	0.31mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $230,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   remarks 489-char remark
4. 2026-06-03
   listed $230,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,396 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,840 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$444/yr (+$37/mo · 31.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,396
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,676
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,122
• After-tax cash flow: $508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+84.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $230,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2016-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-25 Sold (MLS) — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2016-05-21 Listed $124,900 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,396 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.