14 Mango Trl · Middle River, MD 21220

$86,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily · 120 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $103/sqft · 47% below area Est $163k · 47% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great One Level Living in this 2 Bedroom /2Full Bath Remodeled Home. Enjoy a Brand New Kitchen with Stainless Appliances and Granite Counters- Other Improvements are New Paint, New Floors, New Baths and New Lighting. This Home is easy to maintain and is located on a great Lot backing to common areas. Present Lot Rent is $795.00. Residents Must Be Approved By Community Management

Key facts

• New floors
• Brand new kitchen
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• NEW PAINT
• NEW FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $86k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $545 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 4.1% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 251 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $598 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $78,715 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.02%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,016
• List price: $86,500
• Delta: -46.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $17,650
• Equity at exit: $12,897

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $48,038
• Equity at exit: $7,479

Cash invested: $24,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,447 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$454
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$108 /mo · $1,298/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $757

Max offer price $86,500

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $605	-5% $575	+0% $545	+5% $516	+10% $486
Rent	-10% $431	-5% $488	+0% $545	+5% $603	+10% $660
Rate	-1.0pp $589	-0.5pp $567	base $545	+0.5pp $523	+1.0pp $500

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,625
• Closing costs: $2,595
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37 Alberge Ln Middle River, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$1,215	$1.31	2d	8	0.24mi
3736 White Pine Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	741	$1,310	$1.77	2d	21	1.35mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $86,500 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 417-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   price $86,500 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,500 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,500 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,500 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,500 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,500 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,500 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,500 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,500 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $89,500 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Great One Level Living in this 2 Bedroom /2Full Bath Remodeled Home. Enjoy a Brand New Kitchen with Stainless Appliances and Granite Counters- Other Improvements are New Paint, New Floors, New Baths and New Lighting. This Home is easy to maintain and is located on a great Lot backing to common areas. Present Lot Rent is $795.00. Residents Must Be Approved By Community Management

17. 2026-03-07
    status Active 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Great One Level Living in this 2 Bedroom /2Full Bath Remodeled Home. Enjoy a Brand New Kitchen with Stainless Appliances and Granite Counters- Other Improvements are New Paint, New Floors, New Baths and New Lighting. This Home is easy to maintain and is located on a great Lot backing to common areas. Present Lot Rent is $795.00. Residents Must Be Approved By Community Management

18. 2026-02-28
    historical Active Under Contract 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Great One Level Living in this 2 Bedroom /2Full Bath Remodeled Home. Enjoy a Brand New Kitchen with Stainless Appliances and Granite Counters- Other Improvements are New Paint, New Floors, New Baths and New Lighting. This Home is easy to maintain and is located on a great Lot backing to common areas. Present Lot Rent is $795.00. Residents Must Be Approved By Community Management

19. 2026-02-11
    listed $95,300 Active 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Great One Level Living in this 2 Bedroom /2Full Bath Remodeled Home. Enjoy a Brand New Kitchen with Stainless Appliances and Granite Counters- Other Improvements are New Paint, New Floors, New Baths and New Lighting. This Home is easy to maintain and is located on a great Lot backing to common areas. Present Lot Rent is $795.00. Residents Must Be Approved By Community Management

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,845
• − Property taxes: −$1,298
• − Insurance: −$432
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,389
• − Management: −$1,389
• − Depreciation: −$2,516
• Taxable income: $5,495
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,319
• After-tax cash flow: $5,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This remodeled home offers a great one-level living experience with new kitchen, baths, and flooring. It is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed for optimal curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping and exterior maintenance — Maintaining the exterior can improve curb appeal and add value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and exterior maintenance — Maintaining the exterior can improve curb appeal and add value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $89,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-07 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-28 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $95,300 BRIGHT MLS