4 Marlo Dr · Belleville, IL 62226

$139,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1955 8,276 sqft lot Est $122k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked into a quiet, often overlooked street right in the heart of town, this home offers a setting that’s hard to find: a true sense of neighborhood, where neighbors know each other and friendships come naturally. This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home features a functional layout with a main floor primary bedroom set apart from the two guest bedrooms, creating a comfortable split-bedroom design. The living space is filled with natural light from a large bay window and complemented by built-ins that add both character and practicality. Hardwood floors run through most of the home, and the kitchen offers generous space with vintage-style countertops that bring a bit of personality. Many of the m

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1955

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with electric oven and microwave; Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total (one on the main level, two on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Microwave; Electric oven; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-180/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#142 in IL, #2,604 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Belleville High School-West (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 2,234 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $139k implies a 190% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,801 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $121,584
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 Verne Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	868 (+6%)	4mo	$135,000	$156	57
1604 Pin Oak Ln	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+6%)	11mo	$119,900	$139	54
504 N 16th St	0.63mi	3/1.0	840 (+3%)	10mo	$54,900	$65	50
102 S 34th St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	806 (-1%)	3mo	$135,000	$167	49
1007 Western Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5	884 (+8%)	9mo	$132,500	$150	46
1213 Kinsella Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+6%)	11mo	$145,000	$168	44
14 Lillian Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	925 (+13%)	3mo	$79,900	$86	42
708 Gilbert St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	910 (+12%)	1mo	$94,500	$104	42
612 Morgan St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-4%)	10mo	$134,000	$171	39
51 Lillian Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	925 (+13%)	10mo	$137,900	$149	35
18 Lillian Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	925 (+13%)	14mo	$110,000	$119	33
3106 Roland Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	914 (+12%)	10mo	$120,000	$131	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-21,278
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-10,451
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62226

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,328 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,327/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,347

Max offer price $136,351

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31 S 27th St Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$915	$0.92	24d	1	0.65mi
213 Columbus Dr Belleville, IL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,650	$1.59	24d	1	0.68mi
1308 Caseyville Ave Swansea, IL	2.0	1.0	890	$1,200	$1.35	4d	1	0.75mi
654 N 39th St Belleville, IL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,400	$1.42	18d	1	1.13mi
54 Ben Louis Dr Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,145	$1.27	24d	1	1.18mi
1000 Royal Heights Rd Belleville, IL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,345	$1.22	24d	1	1.33mi
4516 W Main St Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	607	$850	$1.40	24d	1	1.36mi
56 Friendly Dr Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	24d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $139,000
3. 2026-04-09
   listed $149,000 Active
4. 2026-04-07
   historical $149,000
5. 1991-05-02
   soldstatus $48,000
6. 1991-05-02
   soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,327 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,327 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$3,327
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,275
• − Management: −$1,275
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$2,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$592
• After-tax cash flow: $412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville Twp Hsd 201
• NCES district ID: 1705640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,064
• Composite: 22.39/100
• National rank: #8115
• State rank: #308 of 620 in IL

Livability — Belleville

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2604

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belleville, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 47,407
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,255
• Household income: $70,797
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 24% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.57%
• Current HPI: 133.9028
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+189.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $139,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $149,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Coming Soon $149,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1991-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,327 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.