13040 North Forest Dr E · Axis, AL 36505

$37,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Other · 52 Days on market

0.34 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobilhome for sale. Sell Strictly as is. Address is for 2 mobilhomes only one lot 22 is for sale.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Listed 52 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#497 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.8%/yr); year-one equity from $259 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,375 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 133.07%
• DSCR: 6.92
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.51×
• Total profit: $68,334
• Equity at exit: $5,853

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.78×
• Total profit: $155,235
• Equity at exit: $3,693

Cash invested: $10,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36505

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $194/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $1,164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $289

Max offer price $37,500

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,186	-5% $1,175	+0% $1,164	+5% $1,154	+10% $1,143
Rent	-10% $1,025	-5% $1,095	+0% $1,164	+5% $1,234	+10% $1,304
Rate	-1.0pp $1,183	-0.5pp $1,174	base $1,164	+0.5pp $1,155	+1.0pp $1,145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,375
• Closing costs: $1,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-04
   listed $37,500 Active 98-char remark

   Show marketing remark (98 chars)

   Mobilhome for sale. Sell Strictly as is. Address is for 2 mobilhomes only one lot 22 is for sale.

2. 2011-04-01
   soldstatus $50,000
3. 2011-03-23
   soldstatus $73,000
4. 2007-07-06
   soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $194 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $194 · $16/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,101
• − Property taxes: −$194
• − Insurance: −$188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$1,091
• Taxable income: $14,198
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,408
• After-tax cash flow: $10,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Axis

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #497
• US rank: #24802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 911

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Native American 4% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.84%
• Current HPI: 197.479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $37,500 GCMLS AL
• 2011-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2007-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $194 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.