2806 Baynes Pl · Lowry Crossing, TX 75407

$255,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,335 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,600 sqft lot $192/sqft · 5% below area Est $270k · 5% under $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21248640 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - Jun 2026 completion! ~ The birch tree represents new beginnings and what better place to start anew than with a floor plan bearing the same name? Invite new neighbors over for a housewarming party featuring stuffed mushrooms. The secret ingredient is the gourmet kitchen you used to make them in. There’s plenty of room to entertain in the airy great room, but with the patio door open, guests can enjoy fresh air. When conversation turns to work, take them to see the bedroom you converted into a home office. The spacious closet is perfect for storing supplies. After the party, snuggle with your spouse in the lovely primary suite. You made

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Gourmet kitchen
• Airy great room

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• AIRY GREAT ROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• SPACIOUS CLOSET
• PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community playground; Green/energy-efficient features: efficient appliances, HVAC, insulation, and lighting; Water conservation features: low-flow fixtures and water-smart landscaping
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Lowry Trails); HOA covers maintenance of grounds and management fees; Annual HOA fee; Neighborhood Management, Inc. (management company)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener and garage facing front (approx. 20' x 20')
• Security: Prewired; Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; New construction (incomplete); Located in Lowry Trails planned development
• Construction: Built in 2025; Brick, rock/stone, and siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Smart home features included
• Exterior features: Private yard; Gutters; Exterior lighting; Wood backyard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Pantry; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on main level (one is primary bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Cable TV available; High-speed internet available
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-167 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.3% in Lowry Crossing — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#718 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 436 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,690 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,990
• List price: $255,990
• Delta: -5.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
809 Landon Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,335 (0%)	1mo	$257,490	$193	97
2803 Parkside Trl	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,335 (0%)	2mo	$256,990	$193	94
2530 Midfield Way	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-0%)	2mo	$234,990	$177	77
2722 Parkside Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+15%)	1mo	$269,990	$176	72
901 Landon Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+15%)	2mo	$264,990	$173	71
1304 Hopes Lake Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+1%)	1mo	$269,490	$199	67
2523 Midfield Way	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-6%)	2mo	$229,490	$184	65
1223 Hopes Lake Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+1%)	1mo	$269,490	$199	65
2514 Midfield Way	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+8%)	2mo	$239,990	$167	64
2515 Midfield Way	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-10%)	2mo	$238,190	$198	59
2518 Midfield Way	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+13%)	1mo	$252,550	$167	56
1445 Kinsdale Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+7%)	1mo	$244,990	$172	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-58,169
• Equity at exit: $38,169

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-87,796
• Equity at exit: $22,133

Cash invested: $71,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$320 /mo · $3,840/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,308

Max offer price $231,892

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,998
• Closing costs: $7,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2440 Limerick Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1783	$1,998	$1.12	24d	1	0.53mi
1008 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1825	$1,995	$1.09	24d	1	0.97mi
1006 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1842	$1,950	$1.06	43d	1	0.98mi
1412 Chestnut Cove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,000	$1.22	20d	1	1.08mi
2230 Currents Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$2,099	$1.14	43d	1	1.13mi
627 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	43d	1	1.26mi
603 Smokey Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,100	$1.29	18d	1	1.36mi
611 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	43d	1	1.37mi
513 Spur Rdg Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	17d	1	1.40mi
604 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1592	$2,050	$1.29	43d	1	1.41mi
1208 Sequoia Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,000	$1.09	43d	1	1.42mi
1242 Tupelo Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	24d	1	1.44mi
1230 Cherry Bark Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,925	$1.34	7d	1	1.45mi
508 Poplar St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$1,995	$1.09	16d	1	1.45mi
1205 Catclaw Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,900	$1.29	43d	1	1.47mi
1201 Catclaw Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,900	$1.07	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $255,990 Pending 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,990 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,990 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,990 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,990 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,990 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,990 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,990 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,990 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,990 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,990 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,990 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,990 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,990 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,990 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $255,990 Active 729-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,339
• − Property taxes: −$3,840
• − Insurance: −$1,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,447
• Taxable loss: −$6,417
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,540
• After-tax cash flow: $-458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has the potential to be a move-in-ready property with minor updates to the exterior and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lowry Crossing

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #718
• US rank: #13398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $255,990 NTREIS