11315 Tallow Creek Dr · Walker, LA 70726

$209,381

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 2026 Fair condition 6,969 sqft lot $28/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The STAGS II K in Vincent Cove community offers a 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom, open design. Features: walk-in closet and double vanity in the primary suite, covered rear porch, ceiling fans in the living room and primary bedroom are standard, smart connect wi-fi thermostat, smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, blinds on all windows, wood fencing for the rear yard, post tension slab, landscaping, architectural 30-year shingles, flood lights, and more! Energy Efficient Features: a kitchen appliance package, low E tilt-in windows, and more!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $209,381 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $197,225.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($523/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.8% in Walker — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#19 in LA, #3,999 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 985 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $181,592 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,225
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23481 Country Manor Ave	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,203 (-2%)	23mo	$194,000	$161	74
23497 Springhill Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-2%)	22mo	$199,500	$167	72
23550 Country Manor Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-3%)	18mo	$195,000	$164	71
23544 Wellington Ave	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,133 (-8%)	10mo	$185,000	$163	68
23562 Country Manor Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,165 (-5%)	19mo	$165,000	$142	66
23482 Country Manor Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,398 (+14%)	13mo	$199,500	$143	59
23522 Country Manor Ave	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,398 (+14%)	10mo	$199,900	$143	57
11553 Mary Lee Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,314 (+7%)	3mo	$214,900	$164	52
23800 Stonegate Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,165 (-5%)	18mo	$207,000	$178	45
24578 Rolling Mdw	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+14%)	11mo	$212,000	$151	33
11536 Mary Lee Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+12%)	18mo	$214,900	$157	31
11533 Mary Lee Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+14%)	20mo	$200,000	$143	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,608
• Equity at exit: $29,407

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,903
• Equity at exit: $17,052

Cash invested: $55,223 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70726

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 985
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,816 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,034
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$247 /mo · $2,958/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,761

Max offer price $197,225

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $112	+0% $44	+5% $-25	+10% $-93
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $-28	+0% $44	+5% $115	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $94	base $44	+0.5pp $-8	+1.0pp $-59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,306
• Closing costs: $5,917
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24585 Fair Weather Dr Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,850	$1.27	45d	1	0.76mi
11402 Ashwood Ct Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,750	$1.31	23d	1	1.15mi
25699 Raines Ave Dennis Mills, LA	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,850	$1.26	45d	1	1.19mi
25699 Raines Ave Dennis Mills, LA	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,850	$1.26	16d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr
• Likely covers: internetlandscaping

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-16
   remarks 547-char remark
2. 2026-06-16
   listed $209,381 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,048
• − Property taxes: −$2,958
• − Insurance: −$986
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,743
• − Management: −$1,743
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$5,737
• Taxable loss: −$2,761
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$663
• After-tax cash flow: $1,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires significant landscaping and fencing repairs to improve its curb appeal and overall condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — Dry, brown grass and sparse vegetation
• Major Fencing — Weathered and in poor condition

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and fencing repairs — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Resale Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and first impression

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Dry, brown grass and sparse vegetation	Major	$15,000–50,000
Fencing · Weathered and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and fencing repairs — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and first impression ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Walker

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #3999

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston Parish · 87,496 people
• City population: 23,921
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 63,575
• Household income: $78,621
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.37%
• Current HPI: 170.2207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.83%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B