Robie Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$377,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · SingleFamily · 964 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 964 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $376,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan home; Listed as new construction (Plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Robie plan); Living area 2447

🏗️ New construction. The $377,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $379,285.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $378k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2204 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 964 days — a 12% lower offer ($333k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $318,273 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 964 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $379,285
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12127 Kingsley Trl	0.48mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+6%)	0mo	$408,000	$157	67
12105 Mountain Island Trl	0.63mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+6%)	3mo	$395,100	$152	57
12063 Mountain Island Trl	0.68mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+6%)	4mo	$376,010	$144	54
12051 Mountain Island Trl	0.71mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+6%)	5mo	$405,000	$155	52
12154 Mountain Island Trl	0.59mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,248 (-8%)	0mo	$375,000	$167	52
12038 Mountain Island Trl	0.74mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+6%)	4mo	$385,000	$148	52
12035 Mountain Island Trl	0.75mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+6%)	3mo	$408,325	$157	52
12030 Mountain Island Trl	0.75mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+6%)	5mo	$409,000	$157	50
12178 Mountain Island Trl	0.59mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-8%)	3mo	$362,000	$160	50
10803 Manawa Ter	0.67mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,756 (+13%)	4mo	$421,990	$153	40
12015 Kingsley Trl	0.67mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,756 (+13%)	4mo	$407,220	$148	39
11987 Kingsley Trl	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,756 (+13%)	3mo	$409,000	$148	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-77,542
• Equity at exit: $56,553

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-112,132
• Equity at exit: $32,794

Cash invested: $106,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2204
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,183 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,989
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$474 /mo · $5,689/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,318

Max offer price $363,831

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $24	+0% $-107	+5% $-238	+10% $-369
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-233	+0% $-107	+5% $19	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $-10	base $-107	+0.5pp $-205	+1.0pp $-305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,821
• Closing costs: $11,379
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10832 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,899	$0.98	14d	1	0.18mi
12456 Nantahala Run Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	0d	1	0.23mi
10757 Chippewa Dr Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,995	$1.15	0d	1	0.25mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	14d	1	0.41mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	5d	1	0.55mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	13d	1	0.69mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	5d	1	0.69mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2584	$3,000	$1.16	18d	1	1.13mi
12227 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3326	$3,500	$1.05	5d	1	1.16mi
11880 Little River Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	26d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $377,990 Active 964 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $377,990 Active 963 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $377,990 Active 960 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $377,990 Active 959 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $377,990 Active 958 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $376,990 Active 957 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $376,990 Active 955 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $376,990 Active 954 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $376,990 Active 952 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $376,990 Active 951 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $376,990 Active 950 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $376,990 Active 949 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $376,990 Active 945 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $376,990 Active 944 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $376,990 Active 943 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $376,990 Active 942 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,246
• − Property taxes: −$5,689
• − Insurance: −$1,896
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,055
• − Management: −$3,055
• − Depreciation: −$11,034
• Taxable loss: −$7,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,868
• After-tax cash flow: $586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B