15 S Cliffwood Cir · Morgan's Point Resort, TX 76513

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1971 4,900 sqft lot $141/sqft · 42% below area Est $223k · 42% under ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location is in Morgan point resort Belton tx . 1 min from the lake and boat ramp high ceilings new walk in shower new granite countertops needs some work new door to wash room and some siding repair on wash room as well it's a small build in the back of the house it 200 sf the main house is 900+sf complete fenced in new roof this year as well

Key facts

• New walk in shower
• Complete fenced in
• 1 min from the lake

Tags

• 1 MIN FROM THE LAKE
• BOAT RAMP
• HIGH CEILINGS
• NEW WALK IN SHOWER
• NEW GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COMPLETE FENCED IN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($167/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in Morgan's Point Resort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 745 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 18% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.46%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,238
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -41.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-22,280
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-26,577
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76513

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 745
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,292 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,249/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,274

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $130,000 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $130,000 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-05-19
   historical
7. 2026-05-13
   listed $109,900 Active
8. 2026-03-11
   price $130,000 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Location is in Morgan point resort Belton tx . 1 min from the lake and boat ramp high ceilings new walk in shower new granite countertops needs some work new door to wash room and some siding repair on wash room as well it's a small build in the back of the house it 200 sf the main house is 900+sf complete fenced in new roof this year as well

9. 2026-01-30
   price $224,000 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Location is in Morgan point resort Belton tx . 1 min from the lake and boat ramp high ceilings new walk in shower new granite countertops needs some work new door to wash room and some siding repair on wash room as well it's a small build in the back of the house it 200 sf the main house is 900+sf complete fenced in new roof this year as well

10. 2026-01-21
    price $160,000 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Location is in Morgan point resort Belton tx . 1 min from the lake and boat ramp high ceilings new walk in shower new granite countertops needs some work new door to wash room and some siding repair on wash room as well it's a small build in the back of the house it 200 sf the main house is 900+sf complete fenced in new roof this year as well

11. 2026-01-11
    price $185,000 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Location is in Morgan point resort Belton tx . 1 min from the lake and boat ramp high ceilings new walk in shower new granite countertops needs some work new door to wash room and some siding repair on wash room as well it's a small build in the back of the house it 200 sf the main house is 900+sf complete fenced in new roof this year as well

12. 2026-01-10
    listed $220,000 Active 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Location is in Morgan point resort Belton tx . 1 min from the lake and boat ramp high ceilings new walk in shower new granite countertops needs some work new door to wash room and some siding repair on wash room as well it's a small build in the back of the house it 200 sf the main house is 900+sf complete fenced in new roof this year as well

13. 2021-01-28
    soldstatus
14. 2001-05-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,249 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,249 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$3,249
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,240
• − Management: −$1,240
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$466
• After-tax cash flow: $633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809860
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,239
• Composite: 37.62/100
• National rank: #4378
• State rank: #285 of 826 in TX

Livability — Morgan's Point Resort

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morgan's Point Resort, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,928
• Household income: $80,661
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1198.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 183.6715
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-50.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $109,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $130,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $224,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $160,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $185,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-01-10 Listed $220,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2021-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,249 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.