538 Fern Rd · Laurel Lake, NJ 08332

$90,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1966 0.65 ac lot Est $163k · 45% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a fantastic opportunity for anyone seeking affordable living or investment options. This 1-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home is situated on four lots in the charming Laurel Lakes community. Together, these four adjoining lots provide a total of 28,251 square feet, or 0.64 acres, offering ample space for relaxation or future expansion. According to the township, with the proper variance, this property can be subdivided and developed further. The home features a three-year-old septic push system capable of servicing a three-bedroom residence, as well as a fully functional well. The property includes a red shed for your storage needs, and a front ramp that makes it handicap accessible. Addit

Key facts

• 0.65 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1966

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 7.3% in Laurel Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#521 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Commercial Township School District (rural): math 5% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #449 of 472 in NJ (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 296 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.51%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,624
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
432 Mistle Rd	0.20mi	2/1.0 (+1)	700 (+4%)	4mo	$129,900	$186	76
7808 David Pl	0.22mi	2/1.0 (+1)	608 (-10%)	5mo	$45,000	$74	64
317 Evergreen Rd	0.34mi	2/1.0 (+1)	640 (-5%)	15mo	$155,000	$242	59
1214 NE Lakeshore Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0 (+1)	716 (+6%)	13mo	$184,325	$257	38
328 Jute Rd	0.70mi	2/1.0 (+1)	753 (+12%)	7mo	$184,500	$245	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $8,795
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $34,004
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08332

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,364 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,150/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $872

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $440	-5% $414	+0% $389	+5% $363	+10% $338
Rent	-10% $281	-5% $335	+0% $389	+5% $443	+10% $496
Rate	-1.0pp $434	-0.5pp $412	base $389	+0.5pp $365	+1.0pp $342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-05
   price $90,000
4. 2026-02-20
   status Active
5. 2026-01-16
   status Pending
6. 2025-12-22
   status Active
7. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
8. 2025-11-07
   price $99,900
9. 2025-10-02
   listed $110,000 Active
10. 2025-09-30
    historical $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,195 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 2.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$2,150
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,309
• − Management: −$1,309
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,487
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$837
• After-tax cash flow: $3,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commercial Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3403480
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,143
• Composite: 14.86/100
• National rank: #9378
• State rank: #449 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Laurel Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #22397

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laurel Lake, NJ
• County: Cumberland County · 80,266 people
• City population: 35,228
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 35,228
• Household income: $67,496
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,743 people
• By 2030: 150,373 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 146,881 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 142,653 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 129,468 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 107,456 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 15% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: D+6.0 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+23.1 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.45%
• Current HPI: 274.8011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-10 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-22 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-30 Coming Soon $110,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,150 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.