5040 Jackson St #135 · North Highlands, CA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $659 – $1,223
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 102°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 10/10 · Severe
- Unhealthy air days now
- 34 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 38 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +11.8/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Rent growth +3.9/5.0
- Schools +3.1/10.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$54,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
This is not an April Fools Joke! Get 1 month of space rent paid with and accepted offer in March!! Welcome to Lamplighter a 55+ community park! Enjoy the clubhouse, pool, playground for the grandchildren, off-street parking and professional on site management. This affordable two bedroom has a nice bump out making it feel even bigger. Home has had some recent updates but could use a little more TLC to make it shine. Priced accordingly. Huge lot potential. Credit score of 650 and have a gross monthly income of $2,925. This is a fantastic price for this home! Space rent is $1,150
Key facts
- Clubhouse
- Pool
- Off-street parking
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $54k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $54k).
- Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 30.6% vs local median 4.1% in North Highlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 61/100 on livability (#523 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, crime F.
- Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- Current owner paid $22k; list at $54k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 3.41% ✓
- Cap rate
- 30.57%
- Cash-on-cash
- 86.69%
- DSCR
- 4.86
- GRM
- 2.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $59,771
- List price
- $54,000
- Delta
- -9.65%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3650 Ohio Ln #82 | 0.45mi | 2/1.0 | 784 (-2%) | 2mo | $80,000 | $102 | 74 |
| 5040 Jackson St #18 | 0.02mi | 2/2.0 | 880 (+10%) | 6mo | $110,000 | $125 | 74 |
| 4215 Ticonderoga Ln | 0.38mi | 2/1.0 | 750 (-6%) | 10mo | $54,900 | $73 | 64 |
| 7 4th St | 0.44mi | 2/1.0 | 720 (-10%) | 3mo | $30,000 | $42 | 61 |
| 4127 Chesapeake Ln #122 | 0.38mi | 2/1.0 | 900 (+12%) | 15mo | $47,000 | $52 | 49 |
| 5050 Roseville Rd Unit F4 | 0.48mi | 2/2.0 | 840 (+5%) | 22mo | $30,000 | $36 | 47 |
| 4211 Ticonderoga | 0.37mi | 2/1.0 | 720 (-10%) | 24mo | $50,000 | $69 | 46 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 5.69% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 90.2%
- Equity multiple
- 5.36×
- Total profit
- $65,958
- Equity at exit
- $8,052
- IRR
- 93.8%
- Equity multiple
- 12.20×
- Total profit
- $169,292
- Equity at exit
- $4,669
Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State California
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 95660
- Rents YoY
- 5.7%
- Active inventory
- 108
- Price-to-rent
- 2.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,841 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$283
- Tax from tax record
- −$56 /mo · $677/yr
- Insurance
- −$22
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$387
- Net cashflow
- $1,092
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $13,500
- Closing costs
- $1,620
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5123 Shell St North Highlands, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 912 | $1,950 | $2.14 | 2d | 1 | 0.13mi |
| 3800 Madison Ave North Highlands, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 524 | $1,500 | $2.86 | 2d | 7 | 0.22mi |
| 5061 Shell St North Highlands, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $2,000 | $2.67 | 2d | 1 | 0.26mi |
| 3731 Scallop Ct North Highlands, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 924 | $2,150 | $2.33 | 44d | 1 | 0.26mi |
| 4008 Tricia Way North Highlands, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,700 | $1.89 | 12d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 4020 Tricia Way Unit 4688001002 North Highlands, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,495 | $1.50 | 44d | 1 | 0.34mi |
| 5119 Hillsdale Blvd Sacramento, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 592 | $1,250 | $2.11 | 2d | 1 | 0.35mi |
| 5416 Jackson St North Highlands, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 720 | $1,750 | $2.43 | 2d | 30 | 0.36mi |
| 4930 Polk St North Highlands, CA | 2.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 938 | $1,795 | $1.91 | 2d | 3 | 0.46mi |
| 5520 Harrison St North Highlands, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 735 | $1,478 | $2.01 | 7d | 1 | 0.50mi |
| 3669 Myrtle Ave North Highlands, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 620 | $1,245 | $2.01 | 2d | 2 | 0.56mi |
| 3609 Myrtle Ave North Highlands, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 900 | $1,795 | $1.99 | 2d | 2 | 0.59mi |
| 5516 Palmdale Way Sacramento, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1115 | $2,250 | $2.02 | 20d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 3652 McClellan Dr North Highlands, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $1,650 | $2.20 | 2d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 3517 Myrtle Ave North Highlands, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 900 | $1,750 | $1.94 | 3d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 5625 San Vincente Way North Highlands, CA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 875 | $2,150 | $2.46 | 2d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 4215 Palm Ave Sacramento, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 775 | $1,660 | $2.14 | 2d | 3 | 0.75mi |
| 4605 Cyclamen Way Sacramento, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 870 | $1,695 | $1.95 | 2d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 4358 Greenholme Dr #9 Sacramento, CA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 844 | $1,695 | $2.01 | 3d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 5733 San Vincente Way North Highlands, CA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 925 | $2,195 | $2.37 | 2d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 5001 Date Ave Sacramento, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1106 | $2,400 | $2.17 | 2d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 4552 Ashcroft Ave Unit 36D Sacramento, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $1,250 | $1.56 | 2d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 4561 Ashcroft Ave Unit 52 Sacramento, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,395 | $1.55 | 2d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 4561 Ashcroft Ave Apt 49 Sacramento, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 888 | $1,499 | $1.69 | 2d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 5800 Hamilton St Sacramento, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 823 | $1,770 | $2.15 | 2d | 4 | 0.93mi |
| 5614 Hillsdale Blvd Unit A Sacramento, CA | 2.0 | 1.5 | 933 | $1,450 | $1.55 | 22d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 5048 Date Ave Sacramento, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,588 | $1.59 | 44d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 4909 Date Ave Sacramento, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 737 | $1,750 | $2.37 | 44d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 5011 Bremner Way #2 Sacramento, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 850 | $1,700 | $2.00 | 2d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 5011 Bremner Way #3 Sacramento, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 850 | $1,700 | $2.00 | 24d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 4728 Amber Ln Sacramento, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 730 | $1,900 | $2.60 | 19d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 5008 Bremner Way #3 Sacramento, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 850 | $1,650 | $1.94 | 2d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 5674 Hillsdale Blvd Sacramento, CA | 2.0 | 1.5 | 933 | $1,600 | $1.71 | 2d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 4549 Greenholme Dr #2 Sacramento, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 840 | $2,000 | $2.38 | 3d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 6037 N Haven Dr North Highlands, CA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 884 | $2,150 | $2.43 | 2d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 5600 Walerga Rd #4 Sacramento, CA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 924 | $1,700 | $1.84 | 2d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 5728 Luce Ave McClellan Park, CA | 2.0–3.0 | 1.0 | 1058 | $2,120 | $2.00 | 2d | 3 | 1.14mi |
| 5415 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 850 | $1,725 | $2.03 | 2d | 3 | 1.14mi |
| 4661 Orange Grove Ave Sacramento, CA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $1,495 | $2.14 | 24d | 2 | 1.15mi |
| 4815 Mary Kate Dr Sacramento, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $1,850 | $1.68 | 44d | 1 | 1.16mi |
Listing history 14 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $54,000 Active 254 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $54,000 Active 253 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $54,000 Active 252 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $54,000 Active 251 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $54,000 Active 249 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $54,000 Active 248 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $54,000 Active 245 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $54,000 Active 244 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $54,000 Active 243 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $54,000 Active 239 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $54,000 Active 238 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $54,000 Active 237 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $54,000 Active 236 DOM
-
2008-07-23soldstatus $21,900
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $677 · $56/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $677 · $56/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $22,092
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,025
- − Property taxes
- −$677
- − Insurance
- −$270
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,767
- − Management
- −$1,767
- − Depreciation
- −$1,571
- Taxable income
- $13,015
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$3,124
- After-tax cash flow
- $9,984/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Twin Rivers Unified
- NCES district ID
- 0601332
- Math proficiency
- 29% ▲ 2.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 37% ▲ 2.00%
- Median HH income
- $42,481
- Composite
- 30.67/100
- National rank
- #11437
- State rank
- #970 of 1400 in CA
Livability — North Highlands
- Score
- 61/100
- State rank
- #523
- US rank
- #17613
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- North Highlands, CA
- County
- Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
- City population
- 56,900
- Metro
- Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
- Population (ZIP)
- 35,451
- Household income
- $68,235
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1300.0
Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,660,763 people
- By 2030
- 1,732,990 · +4.3%
- By 2040
- 1,855,755 · +11.7%
- By 2050
- 1,941,335 · +16.9%
- By 2075
- 2,046,162 · +23.2%
- By 2100
- 1,961,444 · +18.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 41% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 7%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 29%
- Common ancestry
- Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Scandinavian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 28% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 56% English-only · Spanish 25% Russian/Polish/Slavic 9% Other Indo-European 5%
Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento
- 2024 margin
- D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -273.83%
- Current HPI
- 438.1022
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 5.69%
- Metro
- Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.21%
- F500 in state
- 116
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 27 | $1,492B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 3 | $174B |
|
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| Retail | 3 | $44B |
|
||
| Insurance | 3 | $26B |
|
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| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $115B |
|
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| Pharmaceuticals / Biotech | 2 | $62B |
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2008-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $21,900 Public Records
Property tax history
+16.2%/yrLatest (2025): $677 · +424.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…