18592 Orchard Ln · Spiro, OK 74959

$62,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1940 3.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bed, 2 bath home situated on approximately 3 acres with plenty of potential. Features include a spacious living room with access to the deck, large laundry area, attached 2-car carport, single-car garage, and two storage sheds. The unique floor plan offers flexibility and character for someone looking to make the space their own. Property is being sold in its present condition. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). If property was built prior to 1978, Lead Based Paint Potentially Exists.

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 3-car garage; Carport
• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available (rural); Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Faces west; Entry on crawlspace
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood frame construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Shed(s); Mature trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Oven; Range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Laminate counters; Aluminum window frames; Vinyl window frames
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#275 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Spiro (rural): math 18% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #178 of 270 in OK (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Le Flore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($429 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Le Flore County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,070 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.25%
• DSCR: 3.01
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,560
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18903 Casey Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,808 (-3%)	14mo	$250,000	$138	50
18553 Crossroads	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,949 (+5%)	20mo	$263,400	$135	44
19118 193rd Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,752 (-6%)	18mo	$141,000	$80	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $49,184
• Equity at exit: $27,878

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.72×
• Total profit: $116,695
• Equity at exit: $42,963

Cash invested: $17,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74959

• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,371 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$78 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $542

Max offer price $62,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $697	-5% $676	+0% $655	+5% $633	+10% $612
Rent	-10% $546	-5% $600	+0% $655	+5% $709	+10% $763
Rate	-1.0pp $686	-0.5pp $670	base $655	+0.5pp $639	+1.0pp $622

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,500
• Closing costs: $1,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $62,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,473
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,316
• − Management: −$1,316
• − Depreciation: −$1,804
• Taxable income: $7,303
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,753
• After-tax cash flow: $6,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spiro
• NCES district ID: 4028200
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,031
• Composite: 16.35/100
• National rank: #9204
• State rank: #178 of 270 in OK

Livability — Spiro

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #17347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,156

Population outlook (Le Flore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,504 people
• By 2030: 47,474 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 44,914 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 42,239 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 35,071 · -27.7%
• By 2100: 25,949 · -46.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Native American 12% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Le Flore

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.8) · D 17.0% · R 81.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -38.6pp · 2024: -64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+58.7 2012: R+41.1 2008: R+38.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-05-04 Listed $62,000 MLS Technology, Inc.