12860 19th Ave SW · East Gull Lake, MN 56473

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1996 0.87 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean,well-maintained & affordable 2BR/2BA home on a large lot. Newer furnace & air conditioner. Convenient location, country setting.

Key facts

• 0.87 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1996

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; Garage(s) on the property
• Utilities: Water: Sand point and well; Sewer: Private system with tank and drainage field; Electric: 100 amp service; Fuel: Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Manufactured home; One level
• Construction: Other construction materials; Foundation: Other (foundation dimensions 75x14); Roof older than 8 years
• Exterior features: Deck; Vinyl exterior; Public maintained paved streets and township road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen window
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level); Primary bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Main floor full bath; Upper level 3/4 bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: All living facilities on one level; Main floor primary bedroom; Kitchen/dining room; Main floor bedroom; Main floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $673 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 0.6% in East Gull Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#438 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Pillager Public School District (rural): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #146 of 301 in MN (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 285 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $135k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.37%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $20,934
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $73,192
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56473

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $344/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,004

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $135,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   remarks 408-char remark
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 326-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   listed $135,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $344 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $928 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$584/yr (+$49/mo · 169.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$344
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,781
• − Management: −$1,781
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $6,196
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,487
• After-tax cash flow: $6,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pillager Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2728350
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,200
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3577
• State rank: #146 of 301 in MN

Livability — East Gull Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #10401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,371 people
• By 2030: 26,311 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 23,945 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 21,889 · -20.0%
• By 2075: 18,435 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 14,478 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.4) · D 32.6% · R 66.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -33.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.4 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+31.7 2012: R+13.1 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.65%
• Current HPI: 233.7849
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+73.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $135,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $135,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $79,652 Public Records
• 2019-10-15 Sold (MLS) $79,650 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-10 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-13 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-15 Price Changed $74,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-22 Listed $80,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-14 Coming Soon $80,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-15 Sold (MLS) $55,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-18 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-06 Price Changed $60,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-01 Price Changed $65,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-02 Price Changed $75,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-10 Listed $77,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $344 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.