4808 Curlew Dr · St. James City, FL 33956

$229,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 136 Days on market

Built 2003 9,936 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gulf Access Via Boat Ramp!! You'll be impressed with this 3BD plus den!! 2BA 1800SF, 2003 manufactured home in Flamingo Bay. Split bedroom floor plan delivers a welcoming great room with cathedral ceilings, sunny kitchen with morning room, walk in pantry, large inside laundry PLUS a retreat room. Fantastic Gulf access via Community Boat Ramp & Community Pool. Oversized lot 80 x 120 adjacent to church property affords great privacy!! Ready for immediate occupancy!!

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• In-home laundry
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• LARGE STORAGE ROOM
• IN-HOME LAUNDRY
• ACCESS TO POOL
• ACCESS TO CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Oversized lot; Public maintained road; Lot faces north exposure; Zoned MH-1
• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Community clubhouse; Community pool; Association fee listed as $0.00

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 1 covered carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Faces south; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Community pool; Boat facilities (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Icemaker
• Bedrooms: Den (additional room type)
• Flooring: Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Partially furnished; Breakfast bar; Tray ceiling(s); Family/dining room; Living/dining room; Split bedrooms; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $738 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $229k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.79%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $10,221
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $70,748
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,650/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $738

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,566

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $868	-5% $803	+0% $738	+5% $673	+10% $608
Rent	-10% $461	-5% $600	+0% $738	+5% $876	+10% $1,014
Rate	-1.0pp $853	-0.5pp $796	base $738	+0.5pp $679	+1.0pp $618

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4807 Flamingo Dr Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$3,500	$2.49	2d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-02-17
   price $229,000
3. 2026-01-15
   listed $249,000 Active
4. 2009-02-10
   soldstatus $95,000
5. 2009-01-30
   soldstatus $95,000 475-char remark

   Show marketing remark (475 chars)

   Gulf Access Via Boat Ramp!! You'll be impressed with this 3BD plus den!! 2BA 1800SF, 2003 manufactured home in Flamingo Bay. Split bedroom floor plan delivers a welcoming great room with cathedral ceilings, sunny kitchen with morning room, walk in pantry, large inside laundry PLUS a retreat room. Fantastic Gulf access via Community Boat Ramp & Community Pool. Oversized lot 80 x 120 adjacent to church property affords great privacy!! Ready for immediate occupancy!!

6. 2009-01-17
   price $130,000 475-char remark

   Show marketing remark (475 chars)

   Gulf Access Via Boat Ramp!! You'll be impressed with this 3BD plus den!! 2BA 1800SF, 2003 manufactured home in Flamingo Bay. Split bedroom floor plan delivers a welcoming great room with cathedral ceilings, sunny kitchen with morning room, walk in pantry, large inside laundry PLUS a retreat room. Fantastic Gulf access via Community Boat Ramp & Community Pool. Oversized lot 80 x 120 adjacent to church property affords great privacy!! Ready for immediate occupancy!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,650 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,650 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,650
• − Insurance: −$6,264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $5,877
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,411
• After-tax cash flow: $7,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+76.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $229,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $249,000 FORTMLS
• 2009-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2009-01-30 Sold (MLS) $95,000 FORTMLS
• 2009-01-17 Price Changed $130,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,650 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.