1706 Pickens Cir · Crestview, FL 32531

$60,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1996 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1706 Pickens Circle. Great handyman special! 4-bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home with spacious open feel situated on 0.32-acre lot. Covered deck on the front of home. Fully fenced lot that includes plenty of parking space. Close proximity to main roads and schools. Vacant property being sold in AS-IS condition without repairs or warranty.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: Mill Creek Estates

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1996
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Paved road surface; Lot approximately 0.32 acre; Zoned for mobile home and single-family residential

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms, all on the first floor; Bedroom sizes include 11' x 9', 10' x 10', 10' x 9', and 10' x 8'
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Window/wall AC units
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Living room located on the first floor; Kitchen located on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.7% vs local median 4.4% in Crestview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,858 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.45%
• DSCR: 4.71
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,888
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1656 Garrett Mill Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,294 (+6%)	4mo	$185,000	$143	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $64,696
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.06×
• Total profit: $152,175
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32531

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $422/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $1,168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $474

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $60,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $70,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 441-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $79,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $422 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $498 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: +$76/yr (+$6/mo · 18.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$422
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $13,862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,327
• After-tax cash flow: $10,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crestview

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3858

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 58,889
• Population (ZIP): 7,445

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.90%
• Current HPI: 261.3589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+426.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $79,000 ECAR
• 2024-05-29 Price Changed $80,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-23 Sold (MLS) $70,000 ECAR
• 2024-05-22 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-05-08 Pending — ECAR
• 2024-04-26 Listed $80,000 PARMLS
• 2024-04-26 Listed $249,800 CPARMLS
• 2024-04-19 Listed $80,000 ECAR
• 2024-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-31 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2016-08-22 Listed $59,900 NAMLS
• 2016-08-22 Listed $59,900 ECAR
• 2015-02-28 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2014-02-21 Listed $15,000 NAMLS
• 2014-02-21 Listed $15,000 ECAR
• 2013-10-31 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2012-04-10 Listed $15,000 NAMLS
• 2012-04-10 Listed $15,000 ECAR

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $422 · -48.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.