3421 70th Ave E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 400 Days on market

Built 2007 6,922 sqft lot Est $210k · 26% over $125/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You don't want to miss this rarely available well maintained home in the popular and very active 55+ community of North River Estates! This beautiful home boast's 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms with an open floor plan, and an over sized screened in patio over looking a gorgeous preserve area. This home set's on an over sized lot on a cul-de-sac and features a 4 car tandem garage. Don't miss this one! Come see it today!

Key facts

• 6,922 sq ft lot
• 4 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets are not allowed
• Financial info: Monthly HOA $125 (Total monthly fees shown as $125; total annual fees $1,500); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee of $125; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool; Association fee includes common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves fund, and grounds maintenance; Buyer approval required for association; Association managed by Newby Management; Senior community; Deed restrictions; Community mailbox; Sidewalks; Association recreation owned

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Covered parking; 4-car garage (21 x 34) with garage door opener, oversized space, tandem layout and workshop area; 2-car carport
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Northwest-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built by Jacobsen Mobile Homes
• Exterior features: Covered patio/deck; Deck; Rear porch; Screened porch; Hurricane shutters; Exterior lighting; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; In-ground pool; Mature landscaping with trees; Landscaped lot; Wooded areas; Conservation area; Cul-de-sac; Near golf course; Street dead-end; Paved driveway; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Living room / dining room combo; Split bedroom floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Skylight(s); Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-454/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blackburn Elementary School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 551 students, 78% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 400 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,408 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 400 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3522 70th Ave E	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,266 (-2%)	4mo	$245,000	$194	83
159 Osprey Cir Unit na	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (0%)	4mo	$181,000	$140	77
158 Nightingale Cir	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (-1%)	2mo	$185,000	$144	73
137 Osprey Cir	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (+4%)	3mo	$190,000	$141	72
3449 71st Ave E	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+8%)	1mo	$268,000	$191	72
3607 70th Ave E	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (+11%)	2mo	$275,000	$192	67
77 Spoonbill Ln	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (+4%)	2mo	$140,000	$104	67
51 Partridge Ave	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,318 (+2%)	1mo	$233,000	$177	64
99 Meadow Cir	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+8%)	4mo	$120,000	$85	62
3445 71st Ave E	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,485 (+15%)	4mo	$240,000	$162	59
3108 Terra Siesta Blvd	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-4%)	0mo	$125,000	$100	58
20 Wood Owl Ave	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-9%)	4mo	$200,000	$170	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-45,343
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-42,559
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,942/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,262

Max offer price $258,323

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $37	+0% $-38	+5% $-113	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-125	+0% $-38	+5% $50	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $30	base $-38	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,295	$1.84	4d	1	0.37mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	15d	1	0.50mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,550	$1.53	4d	1	0.50mi
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	22d	1	0.51mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,829	$2.46	3d	37	0.70mi
2711 80th Ave E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,836	$1.84	4d	1	0.80mi
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	4d	1	0.86mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	24d	1	0.87mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$3,300	$3.46	2d	67	0.88mi
4212 Long Lake Way Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	24d	1	0.89mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	24d	1	0.94mi
9039 41st St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,445	$1.47	4d	1	1.40mi
4648 Lindever Ln Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,289	$1.53	3d	1	1.41mi
5605 78th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$2,800	$1.98	22d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 400 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 399 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 398 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 397 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 395 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 394 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 392 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 391 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 390 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 389 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 385 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 384 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 383 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 382 DOM
15. 2026-02-18
    price $265,000
16. 2025-10-07
    price $275,000
17. 2025-07-02
    price $289,000
18. 2025-05-14
    listed $299,000 Active
19. 2019-08-26
    soldstatus $200,000
20. 2019-08-20
    soldstatus $200,000 Sold 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    You don't want to miss this rarely available well maintained home in the popular and very active 55+ community of North River Estates! This beautiful home boast's 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms with an open floor plan, and an over sized screened in patio over looking a gorgeous preserve area. This home set's on an over sized lot on a cul-de-sac and features a 4 car tandem garage. Don't miss this one! Come see it today!

21. 2019-07-01
    status Pending 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    You don't want to miss this rarely available well maintained home in the popular and very active 55+ community of North River Estates! This beautiful home boast's 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms with an open floor plan, and an over sized screened in patio over looking a gorgeous preserve area. This home set's on an over sized lot on a cul-de-sac and features a 4 car tandem garage. Don't miss this one! Come see it today!

22. 2019-04-18
    listed $215,000 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    You don't want to miss this rarely available well maintained home in the popular and very active 55+ community of North River Estates! This beautiful home boast's 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms with an open floor plan, and an over sized screened in patio over looking a gorgeous preserve area. This home set's on an over sized lot on a cul-de-sac and features a 4 car tandem garage. Don't miss this one! Come see it today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,942 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,200 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$258/yr (+$21/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,942
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,126
• − Management: −$2,126
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$5,002
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+23.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-20 Sold (MLS) $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-18 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,942 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.