299 Hide-a-way Hills Dr · Owenton, KY 40359

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Other public records · 17 Days on market

$52/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom, 2 bath home that sits on a corner lot with 2 additional lots in Hideaway Hills. Home has a large family room, laundry room off the kitchen, large primary bedroom with large garden tub and separate shower, large 2 car garage and breezeway between home and garage. Complete with a wraparound deck overlooking the large wooded lots. HOA membership required and gives you access to the swimming pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, volleyball, and access to the boat dock/ramp.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Volleyball
• Swimming pool

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• WRAPAROUND DECK
• SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• TENNIS COURTS
• VOLLEYBALL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as existing structure
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $629 (includes trash)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Front-facing attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Manufactured double-wide home; One level
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Mobile home base foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Vinyl window frames; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (approx. 15 x 15); Bedroom 3 (approx. 12 x 15)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath (approx. 12 x 10); Bathroom 2 (approx. 5 x 11)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Main-level laundry; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.4% in Owenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#355 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Owen County (rural): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #120 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Owen County Elementary/Primary School (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #378 of 676 statewide, top 57%, 690 students, 62% FRL); Maurice Bowling Middle School (math 22% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 217 statewide, top 78%, 484 students, 62% FRL); Owen County High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 558 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Owen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Owen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $94,534 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.72%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $56,314
• Equity at exit: $103,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $170,933
• Equity at exit: $223,420

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40359

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $945 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,072

Max offer price $100,541

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-60	+0% $-100	+5% $-140	+10% $-179
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-137	+0% $-100	+5% $-63	+10% $-25
Rate	-1.0pp $-42	-0.5pp $-71	base $-100	+0.5pp $-130	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 479-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $115,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,344
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$908
• − Management: −$908
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$3,182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$764
• After-tax cash flow: $-435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Owen County
• NCES district ID: 2104560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $42,943
• Composite: 23.84/100
• National rank: #7804
• State rank: #120 of 165 in KY

Livability — Owenton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #355
• US rank: #16856

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,222

Population outlook (Owen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,496 people
• By 2030: 10,251 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 9,650 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 8,984 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 7,589 · -27.7%
• By 2100: 6,380 · -39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Owen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.0% · R 80.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.8pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+58.5 2016: R+53.7 2012: R+32.3 2008: R+26.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.56%
• Current HPI: 215.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $115,000 NKMLS

Property tax history

-4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $215 · -11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.