None · Horntown, VA 23395

$62,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

4,356 sqft lot $124/sqft · 22% below area Est $79k · 22% under $86/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Oversized cul de sac lot with camper with addition, septic, shed, and camperport. New floors in camper. Furniture can stay. New stove planned soon. Mini-split for heat and A/C. Short distance to clubhouse, pool, restaurant. Also includes access to crabbing pier, fishing pier, boat ramp, boat slip, pavilion, playground, pickleball court and more.

Key facts

• New floors
• Cul de sac lot
• Boat slip

Tags

• CUL DE SAC LOT
• NEW FLOORS
• ACCESS TO CRABBING PIER
• ACCESS TO FISHING PIER
• BOAT RAMP
• BOAT SLIP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($801 rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#549 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $429 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,280 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.54%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,228
• List price: $62,000
• Delta: -21.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35016 Beech Ct	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	500 (0%)	19mo	$45,000	$90	79
5075* Pintail Ln	0.32mi	1/1.0	500 (0%)	8mo	$75,000	$150	78
6167 Nautilus Dr	0.31mi	2/1.0 (+1)	480 (-4%)	15mo	$128,500	$268	61
5028* Swan Dr	0.31mi	1/1.0	450 (-10%)	10mo	$80,000	$178	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $3,171
• Equity at exit: $10,986

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $19,177
• Equity at exit: $8,400

Cash invested: $17,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23395

• Home prices YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $801 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $170/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$86
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $571

Max offer price $62,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,500
• Closing costs: $1,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $86 · $1,032/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-09
   listed $62,000 Active 347-char remark

   Show marketing remark (347 chars)

   Oversized cul de sac lot with camper with addition, septic, shed, and camperport. New floors in camper. Furniture can stay. New stove planned soon. Mini-split for heat and A/C. Short distance to clubhouse, pool, restaurant. Also includes access to crabbing pier, fishing pier, boat ramp, boat slip, pavilion, playground, pickleball court and more.

2. 2024-11-21
   soldstatus $44,600
3. 2021-06-03
   soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $170 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $508 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: +$338/yr (+$28/mo · 198.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,473
• − Property taxes: −$170
• − Insurance: −$310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$769
• − Management: −$769
• − HOA: −$1,032
• − Depreciation: −$1,804
• Taxable income: $1,282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$308
• After-tax cash flow: $1,869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Horntown

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #25399

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horntown, VA
• City population: 479
• Population (ZIP): 479

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 10% Two or more races 5%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.37%
• Current HPI: 99.0846
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+148.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $62,000 ESAR
• 2024-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $44,600 Public Records
• 2021-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $170 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.