3915 Lake Bayshore Dr #306 · South Bradenton, FL 34205

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Condo · 37 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition $646/mo HOA · 44% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully cared for 2-bedroom, 1-bath condominium located in the highly desirable 55+ community of Bayshore on the Lake. Situated on the 3rd floor, this move-in ready residence offers peaceful water views and a bright, inviting interior that has been exceptionally maintained. The updated finishes and excellent condition make this the perfect full-time residence, seasonal retreat, or low-maintenance Florida getaway. Enjoy relaxing mornings overlooking the water and convenient access to community amenities designed for an active and social lifestyle. Ideally located just minutes from the Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport, as well as nearby shopping, dining, medical fa

Key facts

• Water views
• Community amenities
• Convenient access

Tags

• WATER VIEWS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• GULF COAST BEACHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished: negotiable
• Financial info: Total annual HOA/fees $7,752; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee $646 (includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, internet, structure & grounds maintenance, management, pest control, trash); Association: Resource Property Mgmt; Association approval required; Association amenities: cable TV, clubhouse, laundry, pool; Community features: association recreation (owned), buyer approval required, clubhouse, community mailbox, pool; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Parking available (details not specified)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; One level; Faces southwest; Located on floor 3; 5-story building
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Built-up roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Balcony; Sliding doors; Storage; Paved lot; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available (community/association)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $75k (16.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in South Bradenton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert H. Prine Elementary School (math 46% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 744 students, 75% FRL); Southeast High School (math 25% / reading 34%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,716 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,124 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.90%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-25,035
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: -94.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-45,232
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34205

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$646
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,605

Max offer price $75,124

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-41	-5% $-72	+0% $-103	+5% $-134	+10% $-165
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-161	+0% $-103	+5% $-45	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-80	base $-103	+0.5pp $-126	+1.0pp $-150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4204 Heron Way Unit B304 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	4d	1	0.11mi
3963 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit F-414 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	15d	1	0.12mi
3737 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	22d	1	0.12mi
4109 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	768	$1,250	$1.63	25d	1	0.13mi
3506 14th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,725	$1.97	25d	5	0.41mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,510	$1.87	3d	14	0.47mi
2306 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	945	$1,700	$1.80	25d	1	0.48mi
4444 17th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$2,200	$2.59	25d	1	0.48mi
1308 36th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,199	$1.68	25d	1	0.53mi
2305 46th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,837	$1.83	3d	10	0.54mi
2901 26th St W #807 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,525	$1.62	4d	1	0.58mi
919 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,599	$1.68	13d	1	0.71mi
907 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	985	$1,599	$1.62	21d	1	0.74mi
907 34th Ave W Unit B Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	25d	1	0.74mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,325	$1.77	4d	1	0.77mi
2201 24th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,950	$1.75	25d	1	0.77mi
2315 17th Street Ln W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	528	$1,200	$2.27	25d	1	0.85mi
2004 49th Ave W Unit 2002 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,950	$1.91	25d	1	0.86mi
4906 21st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	17d	1	0.87mi
2205 20th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,850	$2.28	13d	1	0.88mi
4812 27th St W Unit 4812 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,545	$1.69	13d	1	0.89mi
4812 27th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,599	$1.75	13d	1	0.89mi
4906 25th St W #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1070	$1,550	$1.45	25d	1	0.93mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	17d	1	0.94mi
2409 13th St W Apt 2 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	770	$1,175	$1.53	25d	1	0.95mi
2403 21st Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	25d	1	0.97mi
2422 11th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,445	$1.61	25d	1	0.97mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,610	$1.89	4d	16	0.98mi
505 30th Ave W Unit E406 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,450	$1.45	25d	1	1.00mi
2002 20th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	17d	1	1.02mi
390 301 Blvd W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,495	$1.33	25d	1	1.03mi
515 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,375	$1.37	17d	2	1.04mi
2127 13th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,149	$1.64	25d	1	1.04mi
425 30th Ave W Unit C308 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,590	$1.72	25d	1	1.09mi
655 Park Cir Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.5	816	$1,100	$1.35	25d	1	1.09mi
2244 9th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	768	$1,323	$1.72	25d	4	1.09mi
2117 11th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	850	$1,295	$1.52	25d	1	1.11mi
1912 19th Ave W Unit 1912 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	25d	1	1.11mi
5059 Live Oak Cir Unit 5059 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,900	$2.12	17d	1	1.11mi
2017 12th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	25d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $646 · $7,752/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $90,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − HOA: −$7,752
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$2,345
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$563
• After-tax cash flow: $-671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready 2-bedroom, 1-bath condominium is in excellent condition with updated finishes and a bright, inviting interior. It offers peaceful water views and is located in a highly desirable 55+ community with excellent amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both replace carpet with tile — improves durability and resale value
• Both install smart home devices — increases convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both replace carpet with tile — improves durability and resale value ↑
• Both install smart home devices — increases convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,946
• Household income: $52,525
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1736.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -310.18%
• Current HPI: 369.8239
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.43%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid