11203 Thunder Dr · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40272

$159,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1971 9,309 sqft lot Est $215k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to add some sweat equity to your home. This 4 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch needs some work but the payoff will be worth it. House has replacement windows and full bathroom has been updated since ownership. Hvac is newer and the water heater is 2 years old. There's a 2 car detached garage out back. Yard is fully fenced. Call with any questions.

Key facts

• Brick ranch home
• 9,309 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• BRICK RANCH HOME
• FULLY FENCED IN BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: THUNDERBIRD MANOR
• HOA & community: No association fee; no monthly maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 car) and driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story
• Construction: Built in 1971; Wood frame and brick construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; One half bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Living room on the first floor; No basement
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $160k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.18%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11203 Thunder Dr	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,050 (0%)	0mo	$155,000	$148	100
11108 Albion Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-5%)	12mo	$210,000	$210	70
5409 Chestnutwood Way	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (0%)	2mo	$214,000	$204	64
5413 Alicante Ln	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,025 (-2%)	2mo	$203,000	$198	62
5402 Anatahan Ct	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (0%)	3mo	$142,000	$135	58
11100 Albion Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0 (-1)	925 (-12%)	11mo	$215,000	$232	58
9614 Blaze Way	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,025 (-2%)	2mo	$210,000	$205	54
11003 Thunder Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,187 (+13%)	10mo	$175,000	$147	49
5500 Deering Heights Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,161 (+11%)	10mo	$195,000	$168	48
5713 Chestnutwood Way	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	950 (-10%)	9mo	$210,000	$221	47
10812 Milwaukee Way	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	956 (-9%)	5mo	$208,000	$218	43
11806 Mondamon Dr	0.75mi	3/1.0 (-1)	925 (-12%)	6mo	$200,000	$216	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-12,725
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,776
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40272

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,603 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,568/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5321 Juanita Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1417	$1,499	$1.06	23d	1	0.46mi
5321 Juanita Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1500	$1,499	$1.00	16d	1	0.46mi
11711 Wiltonwood Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,459	$1.22	11d	1	0.68mi
11206 Willowick Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,300	$1.15	16d	1	0.78mi
10818 Grafton Hall Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	16d	1	0.82mi
5402 Logwood Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,375	$1.45	11d	1	0.86mi
4611 Flushing Way Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	925	$1,430	$1.55	23d	1	1.21mi
10200 Renaissance Valley Way Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$1,904	$1.73	1d	29	1.24mi
6001 Reigh Count Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,605	$1.46	19d	1	1.30mi
12306 Glengrove Cir Louisville, KY	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1215	$1,976	$1.63	1d	36	1.35mi
9905 Ponder Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1293	$1,555	$1.20	16d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $159,900 Active
3. 2020-04-27
   soldstatus $100,000
4. 2020-04-23
   soldstatus $100,000 Closed 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   Great opportunity to add some sweat equity to your home. This 4 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch needs some work but the payoff will be worth it. House has replacement windows and full bathroom has been updated since ownership. Hvac is newer and the water heater is 2 years old. There's a 2 car detached garage out back. Yard is fully fenced. Call with any questions.

5. 2020-03-31
   status Pending 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   Great opportunity to add some sweat equity to your home. This 4 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch needs some work but the payoff will be worth it. House has replacement windows and full bathroom has been updated since ownership. Hvac is newer and the water heater is 2 years old. There's a 2 car detached garage out back. Yard is fully fenced. Call with any questions.

6. 2020-03-23
   listed $110,000 Active 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   Great opportunity to add some sweat equity to your home. This 4 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch needs some work but the payoff will be worth it. House has replacement windows and full bathroom has been updated since ownership. Hvac is newer and the water heater is 2 years old. There's a 2 car detached garage out back. Yard is fully fenced. Call with any questions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,568 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,568 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,568
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $184
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$44
• After-tax cash flow: $2,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,289
• Household income: $69,940
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.10%
• Current HPI: 247.2954
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.07%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+45.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $159,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-23 Sold (MLS) $100,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-03-31 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-03-23 Listed $110,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,568 · +34.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.