205 2nd St NW · Great Falls, MT 59404

$229,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1957 9,204 sqft lot Est $453k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Centrally located
• Full basement
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• CENTRALLY LOCATED
• FULL BASEMENT
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Natural gas available and connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Below-grade finished area (600); Concrete basement
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Level topography; Asphalt city street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Forced air
• Interior features: Range; Refrigerator; Full concrete basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.5% in Great Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#19 in MT, #2,473 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Great Falls H S (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #79 of 116 in MT (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 223 units permitted in Cascade County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cascade County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $225,565 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.79%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $452,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 2nd St NW	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,448 (0%)	1mo	$229,000	$94	100
138 16th Ave NW	0.39mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,392 (-2%)	3mo	$415,500	$174	70
101 Riverview Dr E	0.39mi	4/1.5	2,342 (-4%)	4mo	$310,000	$132	69
121 Skyline Dr NW	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,361 (-4%)	5mo	$484,900	$205	63
2608 4th St NE	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,444 (-0%)	7mo	$465,000	$190	59
113 Riverview 4 E	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,288 (-6%)	4mo	$299,000	$131	59
325 28th Ave NW	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,108 (-14%)	2mo	$408,000	$194	57
329 28th Ave NW	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,760 (+13%)	4mo	$519,000	$188	55
116 29th Ave NE	0.45mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,577 (+5%)	8mo	$440,000	$171	54
236 18th Ave NW	0.31mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,080 (-15%)	2mo	$385,000	$185	52
409 Riverview Dr E	0.73mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,400 (-2%)	6mo	$359,900	$150	50
44 33rd Ave NE	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,772 (+13%)	3mo	$564,000	$203	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-17,453
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $10,018
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59404

• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,256 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,119/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,864

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $229,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,119 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,119 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$2,119
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,165
• − Management: −$2,165
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$16
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4
• After-tax cash flow: $3,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Great Falls H S
• NCES district ID: 3013050
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,586
• Composite: 28.03/100
• National rank: #6846
• State rank: #79 of 116 in MT

Livability — Great Falls

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #2473

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Great Falls, MT
• County: Cascade County · 75,427 people
• City population: 75,427
• Metro: Great Falls, MT
• Population (ZIP): 28,822
• Household income: $83,867
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 280.0

Population outlook (Cascade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,936 people
• By 2030: 81,376 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 79,435 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 77,906 · -4.9%
• By 2075: 78,595 · -4.1%
• By 2100: 79,997 · -2.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cascade

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.3) · D 37.3% · R 59.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -22.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.3 2020: R+19.7 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+9.1 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.73%
• Current HPI: 208.7527
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Great Falls, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $229,000 MRMLS

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,119 · +186.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.