23115 Ludgate Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1973 6,599 sqft lot $129/sqft · at area comps Est $199k · at est. $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! Quaint three bedroom two bath house in Fairfax. Districted to Spring ISD schools. Low taxes rate, low HOA fees. Laminate and tile flooring throughout, no carpet! Roof is less than 8 months old. Call your Realtor to schedule a private showing TODAY!!

Key facts

• Low hoa fees
• Spring isd schools
• Low taxes rate

Tags

• SPRING ISD SCHOOLS
• LOW TAXES RATE
• LOW HOA FEES
• LAMINATE AND TILE FLOORING
• ROOF LESS THAN 8 MONTHS OLD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 11409% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $190k implies a 245% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,985
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -4.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23110 Ludgate Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	13mo	$220,000	$149	87
4555 Algernon Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-8%)	16mo	$205,000	$151	63
4015 Donalbain Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,322 (-10%)	0mo	$168,000	$127	62
3902 Adonis Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,462 (-1%)	13mo	$229,000	$157	61
23207 Naples Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,558 (+6%)	16mo	$165,000	$106	59
23114 Goodfellow Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,541 (+4%)	7mo	$210,000	$136	59
4106 Donalbain Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,353 (-8%)	14mo	$239,999	$177	55
23303 Whittaker Way	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-8%)	12mo	$192,500	$142	45
4211 Hirschfield Rd	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,686 (+14%)	8mo	$199,000	$118	43
4214 Chestergate Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+11%)	13mo	$199,990	$122	41
23142 Calico Corners Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+8%)	19mo	$179,000	$112	37
4515 Hickorygate Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-15%)	16mo	$224,900	$179	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-21,556
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-23,496
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,261 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,212/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,950

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $354	-5% $300	+0% $246	+5% $192	+10% $139
Rent	-10% $67	-5% $157	+0% $246	+5% $335	+10% $425
Rate	-1.0pp $342	-0.5pp $294	base $246	+0.5pp $197	+1.0pp $147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Pending 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Pending 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $189,900 Pending 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,900 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $189,900 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-04-20
   price $189,900 263-char remark

   Show marketing remark (263 chars)

   Welcome home! Quaint three bedroom two bath house in Fairfax. Districted to Spring ISD schools. Low taxes rate, low HOA fees. Laminate and tile flooring throughout, no carpet! Roof is less than 8 months old. Call your Realtor to schedule a private showing TODAY!!

9. 2026-04-14
   listed $1,650
10. 2026-03-08
    listed $180,000 Active 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Welcome home! Quaint three bedroom two bath house in Fairfax. Districted to Spring ISD schools. Low taxes rate, low HOA fees. Laminate and tile flooring throughout, no carpet! Roof is less than 8 months old. Call your Realtor to schedule a private showing TODAY!!

11. 2023-08-09
    historical $1,575
12. 2023-08-02
    listed $1,575
13. 2017-05-04
    historical
14. 2017-04-24
    listed $140,000 Active
15. 2007-01-16
    historical
16. 2006-07-10
    listed $74,900
17. 1991-01-25
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,212 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,212 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$5,212
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $97
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$23
• After-tax cash flow: $2,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+245.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-03-08 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-09 Rental Removed $1,575 HARMLS
• 2023-08-02 Listed for Rent $1,575 HARMLS
• 2017-05-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-04-24 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2007-01-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-07-10 Listed $74,900 HARMLS
• 1991-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,212 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.