286 Parsons · Kyle, TX 78640

$258,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,602 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,747 sqft lot Est $279k · 7% under $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Deerbrook - The first level of this two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan shared between the family room, U-shaped kitchen and dining room. The expansive owner’s suite is situated at the back of the home. Three more bedrooms and a full bathroom occupy the top floor. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion September 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• U-shaped kitchen
• Open floorplan
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• U-SHAPED KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 286 Parsons, Kyle TX 78640; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $262,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Deerbrook plan)
• Construction: New construction (built 2026 listing); Spec home
• Exterior features: Living area of 1602

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Deerbrook plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $259k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,106 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,748
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
231 Bugbee	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,602 (0%)	3mo	$259,990	$162	92
149 Bugbee	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,602 (0%)	2mo	$261,990	$164	91
136 Parsons	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,427 (-11%)	1mo	$239,999	$168	74
108 Parsons	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,427 (-11%)	2mo	$248,990	$174	72
3275 Everett	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,774 (+11%)	2mo	$343,999	$194	70
173 Bugbee	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,427 (-11%)	2mo	$244,990	$172	69
141 Bugbee	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-10%)	2mo	$243,990	$168	68
3325 Everett St	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,774 (+11%)	3mo	$336,990	$190	67
3300 Everett St	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,774 (+11%)	2mo	$338,990	$191	67
3340 Everett St	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,774 (+11%)	2mo	$342,990	$193	66
110 Cedar Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,739 (+9%)	1mo	$474,990	$273	60
261 Madrid	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (+8%)	2mo	$299,900	$174	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-53,841
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-78,891
• Equity at exit: $22,393

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,241 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,348

Max offer price $246,779

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 Parsons Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1969	$2,249	$1.14	11d	1	0.08mi
397 Keefer Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	2d	1	0.17mi
3305 Everett Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1913	$2,399	$1.25	43d	1	0.21mi
1454 Marley Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1969	$2,249	$1.14	12d	1	0.30mi
190 Tofalla Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,200	$1.24	24d	1	0.31mi
373 Jeffers Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2035	$2,190	$1.08	43d	1	0.35mi
216 Jeffers Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,095	$1.29	24d	1	0.41mi
500 Jack Ryan Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	17d	1	0.53mi
167 Rioja Unit (Main House) Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1569	$1,900	$1.21	4d	1	0.58mi
167 Rioja Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1569	$2,300	$1.47	43d	1	0.58mi
139 Madrid Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1914	$2,350	$1.23	4d	1	0.59mi
220 Barcelona Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,200	$1.24	3d	1	0.65mi
250 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,899	$1.49	12d	1	0.67mi
309 Juniper Dr Mountain City, TX	4.0	2.0	2199	$2,799	$1.27	17d	1	0.68mi
321 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,600	$2.04	17d	1	0.70mi
3875 Burnham Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,793	$2.92	1d	42	0.71mi
252 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$2,000	$1.39	4d	1	0.74mi
889 Powell St Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1882	$2,249	$1.20	2d	1	0.83mi
541 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,950	$1.53	4d	1	0.83mi
905 Powell St Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,300	$1.22	17d	1	0.84mi
201 Edwin Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,950	$1.46	16d	1	0.95mi
510 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,731	$1.77	43d	1	0.99mi
1200 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	1921	$2,349	$1.22	24d	1	1.23mi
161 Sycamore Pines Ln Mountain City, TX	4.0	2.5	2018	$2,300	$1.14	17d	1	1.35mi
4624 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1172	$1,790	$1.53	2d	8	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $258,999 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $258,999 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $258,999 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $258,999 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 477-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $258,999 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $258,999 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $258,999 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $258,999 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $258,999 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $262,999 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $262,999 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 268-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $262,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$3,885
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,151
• − Management: −$2,151
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$5,413
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,299
• After-tax cash flow: $286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home features a spacious open floorplan and is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value-add improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops improve kitchen functionality and aesthetics.
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices increase convenience and add value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops improve kitchen functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices increase convenience and add value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B