4831 Skeena St · Tangelo Park, FL 32819

$309,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,839 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1960 6,778 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bank-owned, not a short sale. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with pool. Bank has made some repairs to home. Home is a fixer-upper and needs some work. Sold As-Is only. No seller's disclosure. Please do not call listing agent about repairs. Plaese go to home and see for yourself.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Lake views
• Value-add potential

Tags

• UPDATED MAJOR SYSTEMS
• VALUE-ADD POTENTIAL
• MINUTES FROM UNIVERSAL ORLANDO
• NEARBY NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES
• LAKE VIEWS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential zoning (R-1); Property type: Residential, Single Family Residence; Living area approximately 1,839 square feet (per public records); Building area approximately 1,937 square feet (per public records)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot about 0.16 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Family room fireplace; 9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-269/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#9 in FL, #303 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tangelo Park Elementary (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,121 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 457 students, 83% FRL); Dr. Phillips High (math 21% / reading 49%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 3,202 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $310k implies a 621% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,396 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-54,940
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-62,857
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32819

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,584 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,714/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,612

Max offer price $305,940

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4833 Crow St Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	1325	$2,050	$1.55	4d	1	0.04mi
6331 Adriana Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$3,130	$3.03	1d	46	1.08mi
5316 Millenia Blvd Orlando, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1262	$2,139	$1.69	1d	24	1.10mi
5215 Millenia Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1189	$2,657	$2.23	1d	25	1.17mi
7405 Universal Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$3,575	$3.28	1d	145	1.24mi
7420 Universal Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,665	$2.79	1d	18	1.29mi
5100 Millenia Waters Dr Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,354	$2.37	1d	9	1.32mi
5905 Caravan Ct Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1096	$3,355	$3.06	2d	85	1.48mi
5900 Casa del Rey Cir Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,900	$1.45	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $309,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $309,900 Active
16. 2012-02-08
    soldstatus $43,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Bank-owned, not a short sale. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with pool. Bank has made some repairs to home. Home is a fixer-upper and needs some work. Sold As-Is only. No seller's disclosure. Please do not call listing agent about repairs. Plaese go to home and see for yourself.

17. 2011-12-13
    listed $40,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Bank-owned, not a short sale. 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with pool. Bank has made some repairs to home. Home is a fixer-upper and needs some work. Sold As-Is only. No seller's disclosure. Please do not call listing agent about repairs. Plaese go to home and see for yourself.

18. 2008-12-10
    soldstatus $150,000
19. 2008-11-20
    historical
20. 2008-08-14
    listed $159,900
21. 2008-04-21
    soldstatus $95,000
22. 2008-04-02
    soldstatus $95,000
23. 2008-04-01
    soldstatus $95,000
24. 2007-07-30
    listed $99,900
25. 2007-07-19
    historical
26. 2007-02-01
    listed $210,000
27. 2006-07-11
    soldstatus $180,000
28. 1996-03-14
    soldstatus $68,000
29. 1995-09-19
    soldstatus $34,000
30. 1995-08-10
    soldstatus $30,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,714 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,714 · $309/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$3,714
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,481
• − Management: −$2,481
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$5,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,342
• After-tax cash flow: $1,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tangelo Park

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #303

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tangelo Park, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,213
• Household income: $98,109
• Rent vs Own: 44.4% rent · 55.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 930.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 17% Black 12% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -265.00%
• Current HPI: 285.9384
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+906.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-08 Sold (MLS) $43,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-13 Listed $40,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2008-11-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-14 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2008-04-02 Sold (MLS) $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2007-07-30 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-01 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1995-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $30,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,714 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.