Is 204E Lakeview Ter in Montgomery, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.3% cap rate and $-211/mo modeled cash flow at a $124,999 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 204E Lakeview Ter?

The modeled cap rate is 4.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,173/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🌊 Lakefront

D Composite 41.45

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +6.5/30.0
Schools +5.6/10.0
1% rule +4.4/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
Rent growth +1.7/5.0
DSCR +0.8/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$124,999

204E Lakeview Ter · Montgomery, TX 77356

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 726 sqft · Townhouse · 95 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition 0.60 ac lot $172/sqft · 41% below area Est $211k · 41% under · waterfront $274/mo HOA · 23% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Beautiful fully furnished 1 Bedroom Condo Located in the Golf and Lakeside Community of April Sound, The Kitchen Opens seamlessly to the dining and living areas, creating an inviting space for living and entertaining. The living area boats patio doors that lead to a covered Balcony with views overlooking the pool and common areas. The primary bedroom has a bathroom en-suite with a large shower. an additional room/Loft can be used as a bedroom or extra storage space.

Key facts

Covered balcony
Large shower
Additional room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $94k (24.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (6.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $94k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1304 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent is only 13% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
7 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 9900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,438 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.94% ✗
Cap rate: 4.27%
Cash-on-cash: -7.24%
DSCR: 0.68
GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $210,701
List price: $124,999
Delta: -40.67%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -33.5%
Equity multiple: -0.06×
Total profit: $-36,958
Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

IRR: -74.2%
Equity multiple: -0.77×
Total profit: $-62,032
Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

Home prices YoY: -30.3%
Rents YoY: -3.3%
Active inventory: 1304
Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,173 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$656
Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
Insurance: −$52
HOA: −$274
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,440

Max offer price $94,438

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-125	-5% $-168	+0% $-211	+5% $-254	+10% $-298
Rent	-10% $-304	-5% $-258	+0% $-211	+5% $-165	+10% $-119
Rate	-1.0pp $-148	-0.5pp $-179	base $-211	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $31,250
Closing costs: $3,750
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15656 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	706	$1,160	$1.64	93d	1	1.08mi
15682 Walden Rd Unit 118 Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	683	$910	$1.33	23d	1	1.08mi
15650 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,025	$0.98	1d	24	1.16mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Lease considered
HOA & community: April Sound POAMonthly association feeAssociation amenities include clubhouse, controlled access, and poolAssociation fee covers common areas, insurance, structure maintenance, and recreation facilities

Exterior

Parking: Additional parking availableAssigned parking
Security: Controlled accessSmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertySingle-storyFaces southEntry level: first floor
Construction: Cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt in 1978
Exterior features: BalconyTennis courtsAssociation pool

Interior

Kitchen: Electric ovenElectric rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (12 ft x 10 ft)Second possible bedroom
Flooring: Laminate counters noted (flooring type not specified)
Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (primary bathroom on first floor, 8 ft x 7 ft)
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
Interior features: Breakfast barHigh ceilingsKitchen/family room comboLaminate countersKitchen/dining comboLoft

HOA detail $274/mo · $3,288/yr

Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $124,999 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $124,999 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $124,999 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $124,999 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-03

remarks 470-char remark
2026-08-03

pricedays on market $124,999 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $129,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $129,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $129,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $129,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $129,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $129,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $129,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $129,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $129,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $129,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $129,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $129,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $129,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $129,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $129,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $129,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $129,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $129,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $129,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $129,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $129,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $129,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $129,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $129,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $129,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $129,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $129,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $129,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $129,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $129,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $129,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $129,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $129,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $129,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $129,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $129,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $129,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-15

pricedays on market $129,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $133,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $133,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $133,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $133,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $133,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $133,000 Active 30 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 26% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $14,076
− Mortgage interest: −$7,002
− Property taxes: −$1,875
− Insurance: −$625
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,126
− Management: −$1,126
− HOA: −$3,288
− Depreciation: −$3,636
Taxable loss: −$4,603

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,105
After-tax cash flow: $-1,430/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,630–$10,890 screening

This 1-bedroom condo is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting and landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient fans reduce utility costs and improve comfort ↑
Both Replace window treatments — New window treatments improve energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
Both Replace flooring in living room — New flooring enhances the living space and increases resale value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stewart Creek El C TX #686/4,322 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Lincoln El C TX #621/4,322 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 High Lake Creek H S C+ TX #268/1,632 Nat'l #3,510/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Montgomery ISD
NCES district ID: 4831260
Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income: $75,596
Composite: 53.55/100
National rank: #1445
State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

Score: 70/100
State rank: #372
US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 67,277
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 32,583
Household income: $106,804
Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
Current HPI: 233.0032
Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-11.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

2026-06-13 Price Changed $129,000 HARMLS
2026-05-06 Listed for Rent $1,250 HARMLS
2026-05-05 Rental Removed $1,300 HARMLS
2026-05-05 Listed $133,000 HARMLS
2026-05-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-04-29 Listed for Rent $1,300 HARMLS
2026-04-28 Rental Removed $1,325 HARMLS
2026-04-09 Price Changed $133,000 HARMLS
2026-03-24 Price Changed $134,990 HARMLS
2026-02-04 Listed for Rent $1,325 HARMLS
2026-02-03 Listed $138,000 HARMLS
2026-01-26 Rental Removed $1,325 HARMLS
2026-01-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-01-06 Listed for Rent $1,325 HARMLS
2025-11-07 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
2025-09-23 Listed $145,000 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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