15954 Furlong Loop · Foley, AL 36535

$250,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $195/sqft · at area comps Est $257k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. Two secondary bedrooms surround a full bathroom at the front of the home, leading to an open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A lavish owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner and features an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $251k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-350 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Foley Middle School (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 257 statewide, top 68%, 783 students, 82% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 38% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,211 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.98%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,543
• List price: $250,990
• Delta: -2.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15304 Tiller Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,290 (0%)	3mo	$236,490	$183	94
15376 Planters Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,290 (0%)	4mo	$241,680	$187	91
15320 Planters Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,290 (0%)	5mo	$247,990	$192	91
8940 Shannon's Mill Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-4%)	1mo	$209,200	$169	82
15318 Tiller Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,413 (+10%)	2mo	$266,490	$189	78
8940 Caitlin St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,383 (+7%)	3mo	$240,000	$174	74
16109 Furlong Loop	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+14%)	8mo	$249,990	$170	64
15397 Furlong Loop	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+14%)	9mo	$252,990	$172	60
15435 Furlong Loop	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+14%)	8mo	$254,990	$173	60
8815 Gryder St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+13%)	2mo	$253,500	$174	59
8409 Shannon's Mill Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+14%)	6mo	$254,980	$173	53
8453 Shannon's Mill Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+14%)	9mo	$264,990	$180	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-65,033
• Equity at exit: $37,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-93,563
• Equity at exit: $21,701

Cash invested: $70,277 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $262,494 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 183 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36535

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,752 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,316
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$314 /mo · $3,765/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,196

Max offer price $200,291

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-177	-5% $-264	+0% $-350	+5% $-437	+10% $-524
Rent	-10% $-489	-5% $-420	+0% $-350	+5% $-281	+10% $-212
Rate	-1.0pp $-224	-0.5pp $-287	base $-350	+0.5pp $-415	+1.0pp $-482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,748
• Closing costs: $7,530
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $251,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family propertyActive listing
• Exterior features: Address: 15954 Furlong Loop, Foley, AL 36535

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, Plan: Bonds)Living area approximately 1290

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-07-07
   days on market $250,990 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-07-06
   days on market $250,990 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-07-05
   days on market $250,990 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-07-04
   days on market $250,990 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-07-03
   days on market $250,990 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-07-02
   days on market $250,990 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-07-01
   days on market $250,990 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-30
   days on market $250,990 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-29
   days on market $250,990 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-28
    days on market $250,990 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-28
    pricedays on market $250,990 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-27
    days on market $251,490 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-25
    days on market $251,490 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-23
    days on market $251,490 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-21
    days on market $251,490 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-06-19
    days on market $251,490 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-06-18
    days on market $251,490 Active 21 DOM
18. 2026-06-17
    days on market $251,490 Active 20 DOM
19. 2026-06-16
    days on market $251,490 Active 19 DOM
20. 2026-06-15
    days on market $251,490 Active 18 DOM
21. 2026-06-14
    days on market $251,490 Active 16 DOM
22. 2026-06-13
    days on market $251,490 Active 15 DOM
23. 2026-06-10
    days on market $251,490 Active 13 DOM
24. 2026-06-09
    days on market $251,490 Active 12 DOM
25. 2026-06-08
    days on market $251,490 Active 11 DOM
26. 2026-06-07
    days on market $251,490 Active 10 DOM
27. 2026-06-03
    days on market $251,490 Active 6 DOM
28. 2026-06-02
    days on market $251,490 Active 5 DOM
29. 2026-06-01
    days on market $251,490 Active 4 DOM
30. 2026-05-31
    days on market $251,490 Active 3 DOM
31. 2026-05-30
    days on market $251,490 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,059
• − Property taxes: −$3,765
• − Insurance: −$1,255
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,682
• − Management: −$1,682
• − Depreciation: −$7,302
• Taxable loss: −$8,719
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,093
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern single-story home is in excellent condition with a good layout and low-maintenance features. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to maximize both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's aesthetic and energy efficiency. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia School F AL #311/627 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Foley Middle School F AL #172/257 Nat'l #10,902/14,009 High Foley High School F AL #118/305 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Foley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 248,264 people
• City population: 40,628
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 40,628
• Household income: $66,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.82%
• Current HPI: 262.2796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $251,490

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family propertyActive listing
• Exterior features: Address: 15954 Furlong Loop, Foley, AL 36535

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, Plan: Bonds)Living area approximately 1290