13729 Squall Ln · Hudson, FL 34669

$299,052

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,603 sqft · SingleFamily · 165 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,952 sqft lot 2-car garage $172/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Canary at 13729 Squall Lane in Palm Wind! This inviting new home offers a thoughtfully designed layout that blends comfort and functionality with everyday ease. The foyer opens into a flexible space perfect for a home office or hobby area, leading into a bright and open kitchen, dining, and great room that serve as the heart of the home. Tucked privately at the back, the primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with a full bathroom and ample closet space. Two secondary bedrooms share a nearby full bath, offering convenience and versatility. Step outside to enjoy the patio, perfect for unwinding or gathering outdoors, while the 2-car garage and dedicated laundry room add everyday practicality. Palm Wind in Hudson, Florida blends small-town coastal charm with modern community living. Enjoy planned amenities including a pool, cabana, tot lot, open lawn, butterfly garden, and dog park. Hudson offers natural escapes, old fishing village roots, and a welcoming atmosphere along Florida's beautiful nature coast. Additional Highlights Include: GE refrigerator, top load washer and dryer, LVP flooring throughout the main living area, stainless steel appliances, and window blinds throughout the whole house.

Key facts

• Tot lot
• Open lawn
• Cabana

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• PATIO
• POOL
• CABANA
• TOT LOT
• OPEN LAWN

🏗️ New construction. The $299,052 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $308,499.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-545 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (23.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moon Lake Elementary School (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 579 students, 70% FRL); Crews Lake Middle School. (math 47% / reading 39%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 834 students, 67% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 466 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,227/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,705 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.57%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,499
• List price: $299,052
• Delta: -3.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12219 Tempest Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,455 (-9%)	0mo	$250,000	$172	81
12227 Tempest Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,455 (-9%)	2mo	$299,999	$206	79
13974 Blustery Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,453 (-9%)	4mo	$305,999	$211	66
11927 Foxfire Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-13%)	2mo	$322,500	$230	65
12083 Isle Royale Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-3%)	0mo	$283,600	$182	62
12107 Isle Royale Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-3%)	1mo	$295,000	$189	62
12143 Isle Royale Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-3%)	1mo	$296,990	$190	62
12159 Isle Royale Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-3%)	2mo	$275,000	$176	62
12173 Isle Royale Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-3%)	2mo	$284,990	$183	62
12252 Great Basin Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-3%)	4mo	$296,772	$190	55
12230 Great Basin Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-3%)	3mo	$299,990	$192	55
13428 Meadow Golf Ave	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,820 (+14%)	2mo	$314,900	$173	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-84,536
• Equity at exit: $45,998

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-117,710
• Equity at exit: $26,673

Cash invested: $86,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 47 active · 38 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.8 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $315,100 ($187/sqft)
• Median days on market: 192 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,227 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,618
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,627/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$172
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,916

Max offer price $229,695

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-331	-5% $-438	+0% $-545	+5% $-651	+10% $-758
Rent	-10% $-721	-5% $-633	+0% $-545	+5% $-457	+10% $-369
Rate	-1.0pp $-389	-0.5pp $-466	base $-545	+0.5pp $-625	+1.0pp $-706

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,125
• Closing costs: $9,255
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13490 Tropical Breeze Way Hudson, FL	4.0	3.0	2106	$2,495	$1.18	37d	1	0.43mi
13341 Tropical Breeze Way Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,950	$1.34	90d	1	0.47mi
12840 Payne Stewart Way Hudson, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,100	$1.21	7d	1	0.74mi
13651 Meadow Green Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1932	$2,750	$1.42	165d	1	0.84mi
13651 Meadow Green Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1932	$2,750	$1.42	1d	1	0.84mi
14033 Bream Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	123d	1	0.86mi
12909 Walnut Tree Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$1,860	$1.04	116d	1	1.00mi
12834 Lake Tree Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	77d	1	1.07mi
12834 Lake Tree Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	75d	1	1.07mi
13315 Golf Ridge Pl Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,000	$1.22	5d	1	1.07mi
13315 Golf Ridge Pl Unit NA Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,350	$1.43	88d	1	1.07mi
12639 Skipper Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,550	$1.21	50d	1	1.11mi
13236 Molitor Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	53d	1	1.27mi
13426 Newport Shores Dr Hudson, FL	4.0	2.0	1965	$2,450	$1.25	3d	1	1.31mi
13240 Prince Cir Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,170	$1.22	55d	1	1.33mi
12509 Cavalier Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1117	$1,800	$1.61	10d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty includedLease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Castle GroupMonthly HOA approximately $172.33 (quarterly fee $517)Association approval requiredAssociation amenities include pool and playgroundAssociation fee includes pool and trashCommunity features: pool, playground, dog park, sidewalks, street lights, community mailbox, deed restrictionsPets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAttached garage with garage door opener2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableCable availableFiber optics availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesWater availableSewer available
• Home design: Single family residenceOne levelUnder construction (projected completion July 31, 2026)South-facing
• Construction: Block constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew construction by Taylor Morrison (Canary model)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shuttersPaved road accessIrrigation equipmentSprinkler meter

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanWalk-in closetsWindow treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry roomWasherDryerGreat roomInside utility

HOA detail $172/mo · $2,064/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $299,052 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $299,052 Active 164 DOM
3. 2026-11-07
   price $299,052 Active 163 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   days on market $313,999 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-11-05
   days on market $313,999 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-11-04
   days on market $313,999 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $313,999 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $313,999 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $313,999 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $313,999 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $313,999 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $313,999 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $313,999 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $313,999 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-10-25
    days on market $313,999 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $313,999 Active 150 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    price $313,999 Active 149 DOM
18. 2026-10-23
    days on market $315,999 Active 149 DOM
19. 2026-10-22
    days on market $315,999 Active 148 DOM
20. 2026-10-21
    days on market $315,999 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-10-20
    days on market $315,999 Active 146 DOM
22. 2026-10-19
    days on market $315,999 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-10-18
    days on market $315,999 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-10-17
    days on market $315,999 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-10-16
    days on market $315,999 Active 142 DOM
26. 2026-10-15
    days on market $315,999 Active 141 DOM
27. 2026-10-14
    days on market $315,999 Active 140 DOM
28. 2026-10-13
    days on market $315,999 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-10-12
    days on market $315,999 Active 138 DOM
30. 2026-10-11
    days on market $315,999 Active 137 DOM
31. 2026-10-10
    pricedays on market $315,999 Active 136 DOM
32. 2026-10-09
    days on market $317,999 Active 135 DOM
33. 2026-10-08
    days on market $317,999 Active 134 DOM
34. 2026-10-08
    days on market $317,999 Active 133 DOM
35. 2026-10-06
    days on market $317,999 Active 132 DOM
36. 2026-10-05
    days on market $317,999 Active 131 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $317,999 Active 130 DOM
38. 2026-10-04
    days on market $317,999 Active 129 DOM
39. 2026-10-02
    days on market $317,999 Active 128 DOM
40. 2026-10-01
    days on market $317,999 Active 127 DOM
41. 2026-09-30
    days on market $317,999 Active 126 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $317,999 Active 125 DOM
43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $317,999 Active 124 DOM
44. 2026-09-27
    days on market $317,999 Active 123 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    pricedays on market $317,999 Active 121 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $338,999 Active 120 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $338,999 Active 119 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $338,999 Active 118 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $338,999 Active 117 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $338,999 Active 116 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,281
• − Property taxes: −$4,627
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,138
• − Management: −$2,138
• − HOA: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$8,975
• Taxable loss: −$12,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,890
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is move-in ready with no visible signs of wear or damage. It offers a thoughtfully designed layout that blends comfort and functionality with everyday ease.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chango Elementary School A+ NY #133/2,108 Nat'l #798/41,679 Middle Crews Lake Middle School. D- FL #331/571 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Hudson High School F FL #264/667 Nat'l #7,501/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4856

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 45,307
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty includedLease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Castle GroupMonthly HOA approximately $172.33 (quarterly fee $517)Association approval requiredAssociation amenities include pool and playgroundAssociation fee includes pool and trashCommunity features: pool, playground, dog park, sidewalks, street lights, community mailbox, deed restrictionsPets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAttached garage with garage door opener2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableCable availableFiber optics availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesWater availableSewer available
• Home design: Single family residenceOne levelUnder construction (projected completion July 31, 2026)South-facing
• Construction: Block constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew construction by Taylor Morrison (Canary model)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shuttersPaved road accessIrrigation equipmentSprinkler meter

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanWalk-in closetsWindow treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry roomWasherDryerGreat roomInside utility

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $329,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-27 Listed $329,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid