445-447 Lincoln Way · San Francisco, CA 94122

$1,568,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,500 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1925 2,375 sqft lot $627/sqft · 5% below area Est $1976k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Fabulous opportunity to own desirable Inner Sunset units, 1 is vacant. Each unit offers period details, beautiful hardwood floors, eat-in kitchen, formal living/dining room, decorative fireplace and individual laundry appliances with full sized washers & dryers, 2 bedrooms/1 full bath each. 2 car tandem parking. Perfect for Owner/Investor. Great Location!! Within walking distance to Golden Gate Park, UC medical facilities, muni and trendy cafes/restaurants on Irving Street & Cole Valley. This location is a Walker's Paradise so daily errands do not require a car.

Key facts

• Decorative fireplace
• Eat-in kitchen
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FORMAL LIVING DINING ROOM
• DECORATIVE FIREPLACE
• INDIVIDUAL LAUNDRY APPLIANCES
• FULL SIZED WASHERS DRYERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two-unit property: one unit leased, one unit month-to-month, one vacant; One unit owner-occupied; No furnished units
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with garage door opener; Tandem parking (2 total parking spaces)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detectors; Double-strapped water heater; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available (separate meter); Gas available (separate meter); Public water; Public sewer; Electric on property
• Home design: Residential income property (Duplex); One building; Three or more levels; Tar and gravel roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built in 1925
• Construction: Shingle siding and stucco exterior
• Exterior features: Uncovered deck; Dual-pane partial windows; Fenced yard; Garden and landscaped lot; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas oven; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (unit breakdown: two 2-bedroom flats)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating
• Interior features: Low-flow plumbing fixtures and toilets; Central heating
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.57M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.28M (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.28M (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,773/mo this rent would consume 105% of the median local household income ($146k/yr) (locally 2227% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $47k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.54M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1,277,300 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,976,365
• List price: $1,568,000
• Delta: -20.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1421-1423 7th Ave	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,488 (-0%)	22mo	$1,950,000	$784	68
1204-1206 Funston Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,230 (-11%)	11mo	$2,150,000	$964	54
1719-1721 7th Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,510 (+0%)	18mo	$1,620,000	$645	53
831-833 Arguello Blvd	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,236 (-11%)	8mo	$1,300,000	$581	44
674 10th Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,800 (+12%)	2mo	$1,038,000	$371	44
750-752 Cabrillo St	0.70mi	5/— (+1)	2,660 (+6%)	15mo	$1,420,000	$534	39
64-66 Woodland Ave	0.59mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,760 (+10%)	10mo	$2,050,000	$743	38
646-648 6th Ave	0.73mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,800 (+12%)	8mo	$1,850,000	$661	34
121-123 Grattan St	0.72mi	4/4.0	2,735 (+9%)	15mo	$1,625,000	$594	30
1419-1421 16th Ave	0.68mi	5/5.0 (+1)	2,766 (+11%)	5mo	$2,600,000	$940	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-177,596
• Equity at exit: $233,794

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $163,166
• Equity at exit: $135,572

Cash invested: $439,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94122

• Rents YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 30.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,773 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,223
• Tax from tax record: −$1,068 /mo · $12,815/yr
• Insurance: −$653
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,682
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,587

Max offer price $1,568,000

Occupancy floor 94%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$12,774
Total (3 units)			$12,773

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $392,000
• Closing costs: $47,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1265 Stanyan St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2005	$13,900	$6.93	7d	1	0.71mi
13 Warren Dr San Francisco, CA	3.0	3.0	1900	$8,750	$4.61	44d	1	0.84mi
1436 Waller St Unit 1436 San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1800	$6,890	$3.83	44d	1	0.88mi
143 Corbett Ave San Francisco, CA	4.0	4.0	2500	$10,500	$4.20	44d	1	1.22mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$12,500	$5.68	24d	1	1.39mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$11,995	$5.45	11d	1	1.39mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$11,995	$5.45	14d	1	1.39mi
22 Mountview Ct San Francisco, CA	4.0	2.0	1900	$7,400	$3.89	44d	1	1.44mi
270 Eureka St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	2024	$6,995	$3.46	2d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 580-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $1,568,000 Active 580-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,815 · $1,068/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,815 · $1,068/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥76°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $153,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$87,832
• − Property taxes: −$12,815
• − Insurance: −$7,840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,262
• − Management: −$12,262
• − Depreciation: −$45,615
• Taxable loss: −$25,350
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,084
• After-tax cash flow: $7,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 55,819
• Household income: $146,250
• Rent vs Own: 51.8% rent · 48.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2227.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 44% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 36% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Chinese 26% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -946.32%
• Current HPI: 314.9762
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.73%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+29.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) $2,035,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $1,568,000 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,815 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.