24-51 38 St Unit A4 · New York, NY 11103

$659,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 530 sqft · Condo · 2 Days on market

Built 1929

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 24-51 38th Street Unit A4 located within the Astoria Lights community. This updated two-bedroom, one-bath residence offers a practical layout combined with modern finishes. The open-concept living and dining area provides flexibility for everyday living and entertaining, while two exposures allow for consistent natural light throughout the space. The kitchen is equipped with a refrigerator, stove, and dishwasher, along with ample cabinet storage. Additional features include generous closet space and a functional floor plan that maximizes usability. Astoria Lights is a well-established cooperative community (built 1929) offering a variety of amenities for residents, including land

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Fitness center
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• LANDSCAPED COURTYARD
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Intercom; Satellite dish; Living area listed from plans
• HOA & community: Association: Astoria Lights; Association fees include heat, hot water, and sewer

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Security: Fire alarm; Fire escape; Fire sprinkler system; Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Con Edison electric; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Public trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Stock cooperative; 4 stories total; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Brick construction; Updated/remodeled
• Exterior features: Courtyard; Garden; Gas grill; Dog run; Cabana; Kennel/dog run; Landscaped lot; Near shops; Outdoor space

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Disposal; Gas oven; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window AC unit(s); Electric heating; Hot water heating; Natural gas heating; Steam heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Open floor plan; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Double-pane windows; Updated/remodeled condition; Walk-up building; Bicycle room; Outdoor space
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Common area laundry room

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $659,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $659k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-806 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $542k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $474k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $474k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 227 Louis Armstrong (math 52% / reading 69%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,528 students, 68% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 54 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,745/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($93k/yr) (locally 2848% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$81k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $474,484 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.02% appreciation · 6.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $197,708
• Equity at exit: $457,711

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.55×
• Total profit: $655,689
• Equity at exit: $870,388

Cash invested: $184,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11103

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,745 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,456
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$824 /mo · $9,885/yr
• Insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$996
• Net cashflow: $-806

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,765

Max offer price $542,403

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-350	-5% $-578	+0% $-806	+5% $-1,033	+10% $-1,261
Rent	-10% $-1,181	-5% $-993	+0% $-806	+5% $-618	+10% $-431
Rate	-1.0pp $-474	-0.5pp $-638	base $-806	+0.5pp $-977	+1.0pp $-1,150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $164,750
• Closing costs: $19,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1420 27th Ave Astoria, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$4,899	$5.52	5d	9	0.93mi
34-35 44th St Astoria, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	613	$5,794	$9.45	1d	23	0.98mi
3705 30th St Long Island City, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$6,180	$8.83	12d	3	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-17
   listed $659,000 Active
2. 2023-11-21
   soldstatus $13,000,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,914
• − Property taxes: −$9,885
• − Insurance: −$3,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,555
• − Management: −$4,555
• − Depreciation: −$19,171
• Taxable loss: −$21,437
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,145
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 35,163
• Household income: $93,324
• Rent vs Own: 83.8% rent · 16.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2848.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Asian 13% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Estonian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 15% Russian/Polish/Slavic 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.02%
• Current HPI: 363.2787
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.61%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-94.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $659,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $13,000,000 Public Records