1515 Capalina Rd #15 · San Marcos, CA 92069

$268,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 22 Days on market

Built 2016 Est $322k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely new manufactured home with granite counter tops and upgrades throughout. Beautiful open layout with island and open spaces. Walk in master bed closet, and tiled shower. Wonderful finished patio with plenty of room to entertain. This home is in a lease park, monthly rent is $595. This is a rent contrlled park. A must see!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2016

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located near Capalina off Rancho Santa Fe Rd, close to Hwy 78
• Financial info: Land lease amount: $1,040
• HOA & community: Senior community; Park designated for seniors; Land lease applies

Exterior

• Parking: 2 carport spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Mobile home remains; Mobile dimensions approximately 52' x 23'
• Construction: Public records used for living area and lot size
• Exterior features: Community pool; Close to clubhouse; Gutters; Street lighting

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on ground level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry from carport; Rooms include primary bedroom, primary bathroom, living room, kitchen, and laundry; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included; Individual laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $814 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $268k).
• Recommended offer: $264k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.5% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in CA, #3,074 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• San Marcos Unified (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 115 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $268k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $263,980 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.01%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,984
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1515 Capalina Rd #95	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+5%)	13mo	$244,000	$186	81
155 LAS FLORES Dr #13	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,351 (+8%)	12mo	$365,000	$270	52
155 Las Flores #136	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	7mo	$280,000	$208	52
150 S Rancho Santa Fe #105	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (+12%)	10mo	$450,000	$323	49
155 Las Flores Dr #23	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-8%)	12mo	$225,000	$195	48
155 Las Flores Dr #24	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+6%)	24mo	$342,000	$258	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $332
• Equity at exit: $39,960

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $35,510
• Equity at exit: $23,172

Cash invested: $75,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92069

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,374 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,020/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $814

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,344

Max offer price $268,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,000
• Closing costs: $8,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1635 Creek St San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0	1047	$3,450	$3.29	14d	3	0.45mi
1257 Armorlite Dr San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	1189	$4,330	$3.64	1d	24	0.47mi
1045 Armorlite Dr San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0–3.0	902	$3,398	$3.77	1d	16	0.62mi
1189 Camino del Sol San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1315	$3,500	$2.66	24d	1	0.68mi
420 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	896	$2,445	$2.73	2d	3	0.73mi
3834 La Rosa Dr Unit A San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	1014	$4,200	$4.14	43d	1	0.76mi
3815 La Rosa Dr San Marcos, CA	3.0	1.0	1014	$3,700	$3.65	12d	1	0.80mi
658 Las Flores Dr San Marcos, CA	3.0	1.0	1284	$3,650	$2.84	43d	1	0.84mi
266 Avenida de Suerte San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1132	$3,495	$3.09	21d	1	0.84mi
300 Smilax Rd Unit 11 San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	24d	1	0.87mi
320 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	24d	1	0.88mi
320 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	43d	1	0.88mi
221 Smilax Rd Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$2,799	$3.27	2d	8	0.98mi
3919 Las Cruces Ave San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	4d	1	1.02mi
1643 Rue de Valle San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.5	1086	$3,222	$2.97	17d	1	1.11mi
603 Beverly Pl San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.5	1068	$3,150	$2.95	43d	1	1.16mi
592 Los Vallecitos Blvd San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	936	$2,600	$2.78	43d	1	1.24mi
1241 W San Marcos Blvd San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	883	$2,400	$2.72	43d	1	1.27mi
245 Knoll Rd San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$2,550	$3.19	23d	1	1.31mi
532 Richmar Ave Unit C San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	812	$2,395	$2.95	43d	1	1.37mi
433 Autumn Dr San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1150	$2,650	$2.30	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $268,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $268,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $268,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $268,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $268,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $268,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $268,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $268,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $274,999 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,999 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,999 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,999 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,999 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $274,999 Active
16. 2016-10-06
    status Pending 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    Lovely new manufactured home with granite counter tops and upgrades throughout. Beautiful open layout with island and open spaces. Walk in master bed closet, and tiled shower. Wonderful finished patio with plenty of room to entertain. This home is in a lease park, monthly rent is $595. This is a rent contrlled park. A must see!

17. 2016-10-06
    soldstatus $144,900 Sold 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    Lovely new manufactured home with granite counter tops and upgrades throughout. Beautiful open layout with island and open spaces. Walk in master bed closet, and tiled shower. Wonderful finished patio with plenty of room to entertain. This home is in a lease park, monthly rent is $595. This is a rent contrlled park. A must see!

18. 2016-07-25
    listed $144,900 Active 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    Lovely new manufactured home with granite counter tops and upgrades throughout. Beautiful open layout with island and open spaces. Walk in master bed closet, and tiled shower. Wonderful finished patio with plenty of room to entertain. This home is in a lease park, monthly rent is $595. This is a rent contrlled park. A must see!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,012
• − Property taxes: −$4,020
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,240
• − Management: −$3,240
• − Depreciation: −$7,796
• Taxable income: $5,846
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,403
• After-tax cash flow: $8,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634880
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,752
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #3093
• State rank: #249 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #3074

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 100,940
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 47,335
• Household income: $96,771
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2399.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 36% Two or more races 20% Asian 11% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 32% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -522.69%
• Current HPI: 376.182
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.55%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+89.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $274,999 CRMLS
• 2016-10-06 Pending — SDMLS
• 2016-10-06 Sold (MLS) $144,900 SDMLS
• 2016-07-25 Listed $144,900 SDMLS