104 Summer Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$241,770

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Land · 173 Days on market

Built 2026 6,446 sqft lot $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 7085912 - Built by Brohn Homes - Feb 2026 completion! ~ Start your morning sipping coffee on the porch of this cozy-meets-comfortable one-story new construction home in Elgin's Harvest Ridge master planned community. Wood-look vinyl flooring through the main living areas, an open-concept floor plan, coordinating light brown shaker-style cabinets throughout, and ample natural lighting give a warm feel. The L-shaped kitchen features durable 3cm granite countertops, 42-inch upper cabinets, a corner pantry, and a gas range. Retreat to the primary suite with a walk-in shower, walk-in closet, and semi-private water closet. This home is nestled in a community-focused environment with unparalleled amenities, including a sparkling pool, a fun-filled splash pad, a vibrant pickleball court, a serene fishing pond, and a dedicated dog park. Plus, convenience meets excellence with an on-site elementary school. Don't miss the opportunity to experience the best in suburban living with this exceptional property!

Key facts

• Corner pantry
• Granite countertops
• Gas range

Tags

• WOOD LOOK VINYL FLOORING
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CORNER PANTRY
• GAS RANGE
• WALK IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-56/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,777 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $131,637
• Equity at exit: $217,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.74×
• Total profit: $388,415
• Equity at exit: $469,706

Cash invested: $67,696 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,268
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,395/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,074

Max offer price $240,941

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $64	+0% $-5	+5% $-73	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-168	-5% $-86	+0% $-5	+5% $77	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $57	base $-5	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,442
• Closing costs: $7,253
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	2d	1	0.72mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	44d	1	0.73mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	20d	1	0.78mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	12d	1	0.82mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	2d	6	0.89mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	4d	1	0.90mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	15d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 1016-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

   MLS# 7085912 - Built by Brohn Homes - Feb 2026 completion! ~ Start your morning sipping coffee on the porch of this cozy-meets-comfortable one-story new construction home in Elgin's Harvest Ridge master planned community. Wood-look vinyl flooring through the main living areas, an open-concept floor plan, coordinating light brown shaker-style cabinets throughout, and ample natural lighting give a warm feel. The L-shaped kitchen features durable 3cm granite countertops, 42-inch upper cabinets, a corner pantry, and a gas range. Retreat to the primary suite with a walk-in shower, walk-in closet, and semi-private water closet. This home is nestled in a community-focused environment with unparalleled amenities, including a sparkling pool, a fun-filled splash pad, a vibrant pickleball court, a serene fishing pond, and a dedicated dog park. Plus, convenience meets excellence with an on-site elementary school. Don't miss the opportunity to experience the best in suburban living with this exceptional property!

2. 2025-11-26
   listed $241,770 Active 1016-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

   MLS# 7085912 - Built by Brohn Homes - Feb 2026 completion! ~ Start your morning sipping coffee on the porch of this cozy-meets-comfortable one-story new construction home in Elgin's Harvest Ridge master planned community. Wood-look vinyl flooring through the main living areas, an open-concept floor plan, coordinating light brown shaker-style cabinets throughout, and ample natural lighting give a warm feel. The L-shaped kitchen features durable 3cm granite countertops, 42-inch upper cabinets, a corner pantry, and a gas range. Retreat to the primary suite with a walk-in shower, walk-in closet, and semi-private water closet. This home is nestled in a community-focused environment with unparalleled amenities, including a sparkling pool, a fun-filled splash pad, a vibrant pickleball court, a serene fishing pond, and a dedicated dog park. Plus, convenience meets excellence with an on-site elementary school. Don't miss the opportunity to experience the best in suburban living with this exceptional property!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,395 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,424 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,029/yr (+$169/mo · 84.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,543
• − Property taxes: −$2,395
• − Insurance: −$1,209
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$7,033
• Taxable loss: −$4,177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,003
• After-tax cash flow: $946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $241,770 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,395 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.