5308 Bardwell Dr · Denton, TX 76226

$499,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,543 sqft · Land · 110 Days on market

Built 2026 5,489 sqft lot $197/sqft · at area comps Est $506k · at est. $75/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21198410 - Built by Sandlin Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover a stunning single-family residence in the master planned Country Lakes community, set to be completed by Spring 2026. This traditional home features 4 spacious primary bedrooms and 4 bathrooms, offering ample space for comfort and privacy. With 2,543 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, the layout includes 2 inviting living areas, a dining room, and a cozy fireplace, perfect for entertaining. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio, surrounded by a private yard. Additional highlights include the upstairs game room with a half bath and bay windows in the primary suite, perfect for seating or plants. Throughout the home, many contrasting black and white elements highlight the primary bathroom, utility room and fireplace. The modern kitchen is complemented by its dark cabinets and bright quartz countertops with pops of gold in the cabinet pulls and kitchen faucet.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Private yard
• Upstairs game room

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE YARD
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• BAY WINDOWS
• MODERN KITCHEN
• BRIGHT QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-964 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $360k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (35.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1134 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($455k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $324,770 (35.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.26%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $505,629
• List price: $499,900
• Delta: -1.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-146,789
• Equity at exit: $74,537

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-224,373
• Equity at exit: $43,222

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76226

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1134
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,248 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$625 /mo · $7,498/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $-964

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,468

Max offer price $360,406

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-619	-5% $-791	+0% $-964	+5% $-1,137	+10% $-1,309
Rent	-10% $-1,221	-5% $-1,092	+0% $-964	+5% $-836	+10% $-707
Rate	-1.0pp $-712	-0.5pp $-837	base $-964	+0.5pp $-1,094	+1.0pp $-1,225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5308 Century Lake Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	3285	$3,395	$1.03	20d	1	0.03mi
5405 Bardwell Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$2,750	$1.56	27d	1	0.04mi
8508 White Rock Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2041	$3,000	$1.47	21d	1	0.09mi
9117 Amistad Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,595	$1.41	7d	1	0.46mi
5208 Brookside Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2007	$2,495	$1.24	10d	1	0.63mi
5108 Parkplace Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2741	$2,796	$1.02	46d	1	0.68mi
5908 Parkplace Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2516	$2,900	$1.15	5d	1	0.73mi
6012 Parkplace Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,700	$1.35	0d	1	0.78mi
6308 Meandering Creek Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	3419	$3,200	$0.94	46d	1	0.99mi
5908 Harvey Gap Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$3,800	$2.07	0d	1	1.39mi
306 Village Way Argyle, TX	5.0	3.0	2869	$9,995	$3.48	0d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $499,900 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $499,900 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,900 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,900 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,900 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,900 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,900 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $499,900 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $509,900 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $509,900 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $509,900 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $509,900 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $509,900 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    price $509,900 953-char remark

    Show marketing remark (953 chars)

    MLS# 21198410 - Built by Sandlin Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover a stunning single-family residence in the master planned Country Lakes community, set to be completed by Spring 2026. This traditional home features 4 spacious primary bedrooms and 4 bathrooms, offering ample space for comfort and privacy. With 2,543 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, the layout includes 2 inviting living areas, a dining room, and a cozy fireplace, perfect for entertaining. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio, surrounded by a private yard. Additional highlights include the upstairs game room with a half bath and bay windows in the primary suite, perfect for seating or plants. Throughout the home, many contrasting black and white elements highlight the primary bathroom, utility room and fireplace. The modern kitchen is complemented by its dark cabinets and bright quartz countertops with pops of gold in the cabinet pulls and kitchen faucet.

17. 2026-03-07
    price $524,900 953-char remark

    Show marketing remark (953 chars)

    MLS# 21198410 - Built by Sandlin Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover a stunning single-family residence in the master planned Country Lakes community, set to be completed by Spring 2026. This traditional home features 4 spacious primary bedrooms and 4 bathrooms, offering ample space for comfort and privacy. With 2,543 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, the layout includes 2 inviting living areas, a dining room, and a cozy fireplace, perfect for entertaining. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio, surrounded by a private yard. Additional highlights include the upstairs game room with a half bath and bay windows in the primary suite, perfect for seating or plants. Throughout the home, many contrasting black and white elements highlight the primary bathroom, utility room and fireplace. The modern kitchen is complemented by its dark cabinets and bright quartz countertops with pops of gold in the cabinet pulls and kitchen faucet.

18. 2026-03-04
    listed $549,900 Active 953-char remark

    Show marketing remark (953 chars)

    MLS# 21198410 - Built by Sandlin Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover a stunning single-family residence in the master planned Country Lakes community, set to be completed by Spring 2026. This traditional home features 4 spacious primary bedrooms and 4 bathrooms, offering ample space for comfort and privacy. With 2,543 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, the layout includes 2 inviting living areas, a dining room, and a cozy fireplace, perfect for entertaining. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio, surrounded by a private yard. Additional highlights include the upstairs game room with a half bath and bay windows in the primary suite, perfect for seating or plants. Throughout the home, many contrasting black and white elements highlight the primary bathroom, utility room and fireplace. The modern kitchen is complemented by its dark cabinets and bright quartz countertops with pops of gold in the cabinet pulls and kitchen faucet.

19. 2025-11-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$7,498
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,118
• − Management: −$3,118
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$20,706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,969
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denton, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,587
• Household income: $180,982
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 40.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.81%
• Current HPI: 253.1948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $509,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $524,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $549,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $966 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.