Aspen 4 Plan · Gardner, KS 66030

$175,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 553 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 553 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Aspen 4 Plan, Gardner, KS 66030; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $175,900

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan: Aspen 4; Plan inventory type

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,568 sq ft total living area)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $176k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $176k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.1% in Gardner — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#61 in KS, #3,865 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gardner Edgerton (suburban): math 32% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #50 of 169 in KS (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 277 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,969 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (1,066 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 553 days — a 12% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $154,792 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 553 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-14,291
• Equity at exit: $26,227

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,971
• Equity at exit: $15,209

Cash invested: $49,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66030

• Home prices YoY: -28.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$922
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$220 /mo · $2,638/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,539

Max offer price $175,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,975
• Closing costs: $5,277
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25901 W 178th St Gardner, KS	2.0	1.0–2.0	831	$1,785	$2.15	1d	48	0.55mi
581 Woodson Ln Gardner, KS	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,695	$1.27	23d	1	0.58mi
744 Woodson Ln Gardner, KS	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,625	$1.17	23d	1	0.84mi
370 N Evergreen St Gardner, KS	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,595	$1.36	23d	1	0.92mi
704 S Hemlock St Gardner, KS	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1475	$2,224	$1.51	1d	14	1.03mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,900 Active 553 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,900 Active 552 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,900 Active 551 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,900 Active 550 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,900 Active 548 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,900 Active 544 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,900 Active 543 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,900 Active 542 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $175,900 Active 539 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,900 Active 538 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,900 Active 537 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,900 Active 536 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,900 Active 535 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,853
• − Property taxes: −$2,638
• − Insurance: −$880
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − Depreciation: −$5,117
• Taxable income: $153
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$37
• After-tax cash flow: $2,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gardner Edgerton
• NCES district ID: 2006420
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,086
• Composite: 31.55/100
• National rank: #5957
• State rank: #50 of 169 in KS

Livability — Gardner

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #3865

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gardner, KS
• County: Johnson County · 574,662 people
• City population: 26,328
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 26,328
• Household income: $97,822
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 410.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 663,396 people
• By 2030: 702,585 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 775,386 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 841,772 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 994,137 · +49.9%
• By 2100: 1,073,036 · +61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.5) · D 53.4% · R 44.9% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.5pp toward D · 2008: -9.0pp · 2024: 8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.5 2020: D+8.2 2016: R+2.7 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+9.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.70%
• Current HPI: 253.9021
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.22%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0