16420 Paulina St · Markham, IL 60428

$219,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1961 7,860 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained split-level home offering the perfect blend of space, comfort, and functionality! The main level features a bright and spacious living room, along with a seamless kitchen and dining room combo-ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find a generous primary bedroom, two additional bedrooms, and a full bathroom. The fully finished basement provides the perfect space for gatherings, complete with a versatile bonus room that can be used as a home office, gym, or additional living area. Step outside to enjoy a great-sized yard, perfect for summer events and outdoor entertaining. A convenient side driveway offers ample parking. Don't mis

Key facts

• Great-sized yard
• Side driveway
• Bright living room

Tags

• SPLIT-LEVEL HOME
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• FULLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• GREAT-SIZED YARD
• SIDE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area source: Assessor; Property located in Markham (Thornton township)
• Financial info: Special service area: No
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Four parking spaces total; Side apron parking (owned)
• Utilities: Water source: Lake Michigan; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family split-level home; Fee simple ownership; Built before 1978 (61–70 years old)
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Curb, sidewalks, street lights, and paved streets; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 131

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (16 x 14)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (master and two additional bedrooms on the second floor); Bonus room in basement (12 x 12)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $213k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#186 in IL, #3,539 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, employment D.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $220k implies a 340% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $213,399 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.35%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,896
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16221 Hermitage Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,044 (0%)	1mo	$192,000	$184	86
16444 Wolcott Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,080 (+3%)	3mo	$112,500	$104	78
16300 Winchester Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,012 (-3%)	2mo	$97,500	$96	77
16807 Wood St	0.48mi	3/1.0	985 (-6%)	0mo	$90,000	$91	68
16019 Myrtle Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-3%)	3mo	$70,000	$69	64
16207 Justine St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+5%)	3mo	$215,000	$195	64
16628 Winchester Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (+9%)	1mo	$84,000	$74	60
1945 W 163rd St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,188 (+14%)	4mo	$159,500	$134	58
16735 Dixie Hwy	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	965 (-8%)	1mo	$153,000	$159	56
1924 169th St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,086 (+4%)	3mo	$189,900	$175	56
16784 Trapet Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	970 (-7%)	1mo	$96,000	$99	54
16727 Head Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,150 (+10%)	1mo	$157,000	$137	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $150,305
• Equity at exit: $198,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.79×
• Total profit: $418,398
• Equity at exit: $427,410

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60428

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,276 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $870/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,668

Max offer price $219,999

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $605	-5% $542	+0% $480	+5% $418	+10% $356
Rent	-10% $300	-5% $390	+0% $480	+5% $570	+10% $660
Rate	-1.0pp $591	-0.5pp $536	base $480	+0.5pp $423	+1.0pp $365

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16125 Marshfield Ave Markham, IL	3.0	1.0	1043	$2,400	$2.30	2d	1	0.40mi
16751 Crane Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	2d	1	0.75mi
16901 Orchard Ridge Ave Hazel Crest, IL	4.0	2.0	1406	$2,700	$1.92	2d	1	0.96mi
2107 171st St Unit 2107 Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1158	$2,300	$1.99	2d	1	0.97mi
16752 Artesian Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	867	$2,500	$2.88	2d	1	0.99mi
2308 170th St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	2.0	1020	$2,400	$2.35	2d	1	1.00mi
2173 171st St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1159	$2,350	$2.03	2d	1	1.02mi
16048 Halsted St Unit 2 Harvey, IL	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,650	$1.51	25d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,999 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,999 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,999 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,999 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,999 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,999 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,999 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,999 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,999 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,999 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,999 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,999 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,999 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,999 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,999 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $219,999
17. 2026-05-07
    price $224,999
18. 2026-04-29
    price $227,499
19. 1993-11-03
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $870 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,932 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,062/yr (+$172/mo · 237.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$870
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,185
• − Management: −$2,185
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $2,248
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$539
• After-tax cash flow: $5,222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Markham

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #186
• US rank: #3539

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Markham, IL
• City population: 10,980
• Population (ZIP): 10,980

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 17% White 11% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.63%
• Current HPI: 302.333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+340.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $219,999 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $224,999 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $227,499 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $870 · -51.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.