11520 Captiva Kay Dr · Riverview, FL 33569

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · Townhouse public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2003 4,200 sqft lot $380/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CAREFREE LIVING! You'll enjoy the MAINTENANCE FREE LIVING in YOUR VILLA! GORGEOUS 3/2 VILLA in Rivercrest! Close proximity to just about anywhere you want to go! Located in the desirable Rivercrest Community. NEW CARPET & NEW INTERIOR PAINT!! NEW ROOF 2018! Open floor plan with sliding glass doors to the lanai and NO BACKYARD NEIGHBORS! Large kitchen with lots of cabinet space, recessed lighting & breakfast bar. Master suite has private bath with stand up shower, dual walk in closets. A small monthly HOA fee provides big benefits: (HOA REPLACED ROOF in 2018), Exterior Paint (scheduled for Fall 2019), driveway, landscaping and exterior building insurance. The Rivercrest community amenities include a community POOL, BASKETBALL courts, PARK, PLAYGROUND, TENNIS courts, and CLUBHOUSE. Convenient to 301, I-75, good schools, shopping, restaurants and more

Key facts

• $380 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Wise Property Management, Inc. and Rivercrest Community Association Inc; Monthly HOA: $362.72; Annual association fee: $213.42; Association fee includes pool, trash, and other services; Association approval required; Pets allowed (weight limit: 999)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Residential townhouse; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of Rivercrest Phase 2B1
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater; Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Security system (owned); Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $220k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,136 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-51,533
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-61,269
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33569

• Home prices YoY: -16.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,501 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,838/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$380
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,610

Max offer price $254,890

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10918 Winter Crest Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	1340	$1,800	$1.34	5d	1	0.25mi
11855 Mountain Retreat Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,399	$1.43	13d	1	0.37mi
11888 Mountain Retreat Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,299	$1.37	20d	1	0.41mi
11904 Stoneport Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,399	$1.43	13d	1	0.41mi
11106 Havasu Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1343	$2,100	$1.56	24d	1	0.46mi
11607 Storywood Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2079	$2,500	$1.20	24d	1	0.48mi
11865 Mile Marsh Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	2053	$3,500	$1.70	17d	1	0.50mi
11865 Mile Marsh Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	2051	$3,500	$1.71	24d	1	0.50mi
11991 Stoneport Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,699	$1.54	13d	1	0.50mi
10310 Lakeside Vista Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1462	$2,099	$1.44	5d	1	0.52mi
11351 Coconut Island Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,015	$1.33	5d	1	0.59mi
10976 Verawood Dr Unit Lake Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,149	$1.40	5d	1	0.76mi
10976 Verawood Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,149	$1.40	15d	1	0.76mi
11415 Mountain Bay Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1504	$2,400	$1.60	18d	1	0.77mi
10540 Whispering Hammock Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,180	$1.42	2d	1	0.78mi
11573 Hammocks Glade Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,765	$1.93	13d	1	0.79mi
10710 Verawood Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$1,300	$0.72	15d	1	0.80mi
10903 Verawood Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	20d	1	0.85mi
11702 Miracle Mile Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1405	$2,105	$1.50	5d	1	0.89mi
11943 Stone Pine St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,400	$1.21	5d	1	0.89mi
11821 Stone Pine St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,190	$1.47	24d	1	0.90mi
11815 Stone Pine St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,450	$1.64	5d	1	0.90mi
10638 Laguna Plains Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	2014	$2,300	$1.14	18d	1	0.92mi
10231 Opaline Sky Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,400	$1.60	18d	1	0.95mi
11124 Running Pine Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,300	$1.11	11d	1	0.95mi
10430 Whispering Hammock Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2086	$2,495	$1.20	3d	1	0.95mi
10236 Bright Crystal Ave Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,750	$1.42	5d	1	0.96mi
12214 Legacy Bright St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,400	$1.30	24d	1	0.97mi
11424 Sage Canyon Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,300	$1.57	24d	1	1.01mi
11436 Ivy Flower Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1341	$2,170	$1.62	5d	1	1.01mi
11220 Beeswing Pl Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,400	$1.24	24d	1	1.02mi
10611 Summer Azure Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1805	$2,390	$1.32	14d	1	1.04mi
10553 Egret Haven Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,500	$1.64	12d	1	1.05mi
11535 Ivy Flower Loop Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,550	$1.32	4d	1	1.07mi
10631 Sweet Sapling St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,224	$1.52	24d	1	1.14mi
11147 Rodeo Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2056	$2,350	$1.14	24d	1	1.17mi
10621 Sweet Sapling St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,224	$1.52	24d	1	1.17mi
12219 Dawn Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,200	$1.76	5d	1	1.19mi
10615 Sweet Sapling St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,224	$1.52	24d	1	1.19mi
9904 Calypso Orchid Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1925	$2,700	$1.40	24d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $380 · $4,560/yr
• Likely covers: landscapinginsurancepool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   price $270,000
3. 2026-04-16
   price $280,000
4. 2026-04-02
   price $284,000
5. 2026-03-19
   price $293,000
6. 2026-02-12
   listed $302,000 Active
7. 2026-01-26
   soldstatus $220,300
8. 2020-01-16
   soldstatus $177,500
9. 2020-01-10
   soldstatus $177,500 Sold 872-char remark

   Show marketing remark (872 chars)

   CAREFREE LIVING! You'll enjoy the MAINTENANCE FREE LIVING in YOUR VILLA! GORGEOUS 3/2 VILLA in Rivercrest! Close proximity to just about anywhere you want to go! Located in the desirable Rivercrest Community. NEW CARPET & NEW INTERIOR PAINT!! NEW ROOF 2018! Open floor plan with sliding glass doors to the lanai and NO BACKYARD NEIGHBORS! Large kitchen with lots of cabinet space, recessed lighting & breakfast bar. Master suite has private bath with stand up shower, dual walk in closets. A small monthly HOA fee provides big benefits: (HOA REPLACED ROOF in 2018), Exterior Paint (scheduled for Fall 2019), driveway, landscaping and exterior building insurance. The Rivercrest community amenities include a community POOL, BASKETBALL courts, PARK, PLAYGROUND, TENNIS courts, and CLUBHOUSE. Convenient to 301, I-75, good schools, shopping, restaurants and more

10. 2019-12-19
    status Pending 872-char remark

    Show marketing remark (872 chars)

    CAREFREE LIVING! You'll enjoy the MAINTENANCE FREE LIVING in YOUR VILLA! GORGEOUS 3/2 VILLA in Rivercrest! Close proximity to just about anywhere you want to go! Located in the desirable Rivercrest Community. NEW CARPET & NEW INTERIOR PAINT!! NEW ROOF 2018! Open floor plan with sliding glass doors to the lanai and NO BACKYARD NEIGHBORS! Large kitchen with lots of cabinet space, recessed lighting & breakfast bar. Master suite has private bath with stand up shower, dual walk in closets. A small monthly HOA fee provides big benefits: (HOA REPLACED ROOF in 2018), Exterior Paint (scheduled for Fall 2019), driveway, landscaping and exterior building insurance. The Rivercrest community amenities include a community POOL, BASKETBALL courts, PARK, PLAYGROUND, TENNIS courts, and CLUBHOUSE. Convenient to 301, I-75, good schools, shopping, restaurants and more

11. 2019-11-27
    price $178,500 872-char remark

    Show marketing remark (872 chars)

    CAREFREE LIVING! You'll enjoy the MAINTENANCE FREE LIVING in YOUR VILLA! GORGEOUS 3/2 VILLA in Rivercrest! Close proximity to just about anywhere you want to go! Located in the desirable Rivercrest Community. NEW CARPET & NEW INTERIOR PAINT!! NEW ROOF 2018! Open floor plan with sliding glass doors to the lanai and NO BACKYARD NEIGHBORS! Large kitchen with lots of cabinet space, recessed lighting & breakfast bar. Master suite has private bath with stand up shower, dual walk in closets. A small monthly HOA fee provides big benefits: (HOA REPLACED ROOF in 2018), Exterior Paint (scheduled for Fall 2019), driveway, landscaping and exterior building insurance. The Rivercrest community amenities include a community POOL, BASKETBALL courts, PARK, PLAYGROUND, TENNIS courts, and CLUBHOUSE. Convenient to 301, I-75, good schools, shopping, restaurants and more

12. 2019-11-07
    listed $182,500 Active 872-char remark

    Show marketing remark (872 chars)

    CAREFREE LIVING! You'll enjoy the MAINTENANCE FREE LIVING in YOUR VILLA! GORGEOUS 3/2 VILLA in Rivercrest! Close proximity to just about anywhere you want to go! Located in the desirable Rivercrest Community. NEW CARPET & NEW INTERIOR PAINT!! NEW ROOF 2018! Open floor plan with sliding glass doors to the lanai and NO BACKYARD NEIGHBORS! Large kitchen with lots of cabinet space, recessed lighting & breakfast bar. Master suite has private bath with stand up shower, dual walk in closets. A small monthly HOA fee provides big benefits: (HOA REPLACED ROOF in 2018), Exterior Paint (scheduled for Fall 2019), driveway, landscaping and exterior building insurance. The Rivercrest community amenities include a community POOL, BASKETBALL courts, PARK, PLAYGROUND, TENNIS courts, and CLUBHOUSE. Convenient to 301, I-75, good schools, shopping, restaurants and more

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,838 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$403/yr (+$34/mo · 21.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$1,838
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,401
• − Management: −$2,401
• − HOA: −$4,560
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$5,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,323
• After-tax cash flow: $297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,867
• Household income: $105,275
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 562.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 5% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.47%
• Current HPI: 296.9169
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.00%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+47.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $284,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $293,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listed $302,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $220,300 Public Records
• 2020-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $177,500 Public Records
• 2020-01-10 Sold (MLS) $177,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-27 Price Changed $178,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-07 Listed $182,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,838 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.