700 Gin Ln · Southold, NY 11971

$1,799,995

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,627 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2018 0.33 ac lot $685/sqft · 34% above area Est $1341k · 34% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Southold Summer Vibes. Turnkey on the North Fork If you’ve been waiting for the right North Fork house—the one that truly delivers on sandy beaches, bigger water and effortless weekends—this is it. Set within the Bay Haven Association, 700 Gin Lane puts you moments from the water and includes access to a private sandy beach just down the lane from home. Everything that defines the North Fork is within easy reach—farm stands, local vineyards, and the shops and restaurants that give Southold its character and charm. Inside, the two-story, 2,627-square-foot home is built to maximize your getaway time. Four bedrooms and three and a half baths, including a generously sized junior primary suite on the first floor and a gorgeous en suite primary upstairs; an open design kitchen, dining, and living space perfect for entertaining; loads of light; and a fireplace that makes shoulder-season weekends just as appealing as peak summertime. You’ll never want to leave. The .33-acre property also features a heated saltwater pool with automated cover, outdoor dining space, backs up to reserved land, and has an oversized one-car garage.

Key facts

• Outdoor dining space
• Fire pit
• Private sandy beach

Tags

• PRIVATE SANDY BEACH
• HEATED SALTWATER POOL
• OUTDOOR DINING SPACE
• FIRE PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.80M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($46k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.80M).
• Recommended offer: $1.75M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 6.9% in Southold — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.75M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $800k; list at $1.80M implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,745,995 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.11%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,341,446
• List price: $1,799,995
• Delta: 34.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8355 Main Bayview Rd	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,662 (+1%)	16mo	$1,800,000	$676	61
480 N Bayview Road Ext	0.63mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,936 (+12%)	6mo	$1,175,000	$400	39
345 Colonial Rd	0.39mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,000 (+14%)	19mo	$1,050,000	$350	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-48,545
• Equity at exit: $268,385

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $269,482
• Equity at exit: $155,631

Cash invested: $503,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $19,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,439
• Tax from tax record: −$1,011 /mo · $12,130/yr
• Insurance: −$750
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,994
• Net cashflow: $3,825

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,177

Max offer price $1,799,995

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $449,999
• Closing costs: $54,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
580 Gin Ln Southold, NY	4.0	4.0	3585	$20,000	$5.58	24d	1	0.03mi
425 Cedar Point Dr E Southold, NY	5.0	3.5	3700	$20,000	$5.41	1d	1	0.87mi
1160 Goose Creek Ln Southold, NY	5.0	3.0	2000	$50,000	$25.00	43d	1	0.93mi
1265 Brigantine Dr Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$9,000	$5.14	43d	1	0.95mi
215 Northfield Ln Southold, NY	4.0	3.0	2300	$13,000	$5.65	18d	1	1.06mi
110 Sleepy Hollow Ln Southold, NY	4.0	3.0	2900	$25,000	$8.62	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 1165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1165 chars)

   Southold Summer Vibes. Turnkey on the North Fork If you’ve been waiting for the right North Fork house—the one that truly delivers on sandy beaches, bigger water and effortless weekends—this is it. Set within the Bay Haven Association, 700 Gin Lane puts you moments from the water and includes access to a private sandy beach just down the lane from home. Everything that defines the North Fork is within easy reach—farm stands, local vineyards, and the shops and restaurants that give Southold its character and charm. Inside, the two-story, 2,627-square-foot home is built to maximize your getaway time. Four bedrooms and three and a half baths, including a generously sized junior primary suite on the first floor and a gorgeous en suite primary upstairs; an open design kitchen, dining, and living space perfect for entertaining; loads of light; and a fireplace that makes shoulder-season weekends just as appealing as peak summertime. You’ll never want to leave. The .33-acre property also features a heated saltwater pool with automated cover, outdoor dining space, backs up to reserved land, and has an oversized one-car garage.

2. 2026-04-15
   listed $1,799,995 Active 1165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1165 chars)

   Southold Summer Vibes. Turnkey on the North Fork If you’ve been waiting for the right North Fork house—the one that truly delivers on sandy beaches, bigger water and effortless weekends—this is it. Set within the Bay Haven Association, 700 Gin Lane puts you moments from the water and includes access to a private sandy beach just down the lane from home. Everything that defines the North Fork is within easy reach—farm stands, local vineyards, and the shops and restaurants that give Southold its character and charm. Inside, the two-story, 2,627-square-foot home is built to maximize your getaway time. Four bedrooms and three and a half baths, including a generously sized junior primary suite on the first floor and a gorgeous en suite primary upstairs; an open design kitchen, dining, and living space perfect for entertaining; loads of light; and a fireplace that makes shoulder-season weekends just as appealing as peak summertime. You’ll never want to leave. The .33-acre property also features a heated saltwater pool with automated cover, outdoor dining space, backs up to reserved land, and has an oversized one-car garage.

3. 2026-04-12
   historical
4. 2026-02-13
   listed $1,850,000 Active
5. 2025-10-01
   historical
6. 2025-07-15
   listed $1,995,000 Active
7. 2025-07-11
   historical
8. 2025-05-16
   price $2,050,000
9. 2025-01-31
   price $2,250,000
10. 2024-09-19
    price $2,474,000
11. 2024-05-17
    historical $50,000
12. 2024-03-22
    listed $2,500,000 Active
13. 2024-01-30
    price $50,000
14. 2023-08-03
    listed
15. 2018-10-19
    soldstatus $800,000
16. 2018-09-13
    soldstatus $800,000 Closed
17. 2018-07-03
    status Under Contract
18. 2018-05-28
    listed $799,999 New
19. 2018-05-17
    historical
20. 2018-04-04
    soldstatus $232,500
21. 2018-03-08
    soldstatus $235,000 Closed
22. 2018-01-25
    listed $769,999 New
23. 2017-10-25
    status Under Contract
24. 2017-09-24
    listed $249,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,130 · $1,011/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $21,275 · $1,773/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,145/yr (+$762/mo · 75.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $228,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,828
• − Property taxes: −$12,130
• − Insurance: −$9,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,258
• − Management: −$18,258
• − Depreciation: −$52,363
• Taxable income: $17,391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,174
• After-tax cash flow: $41,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+622.9% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $1,799,995 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Listed $1,850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Listed $1,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $2,050,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $2,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-19 Price Changed $2,474,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-17 Rental Removed $50,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-03-22 Listed $2,500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-30 Price Changed $50,000 ONEKEY
• 2023-08-03 Listed for Rent — ONEKEY
• 2018-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $800,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-13 Sold (MLS) $800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-28 Listed $799,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $232,500 Public Records
• 2018-03-08 Sold (MLS) $235,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-25 Listed $769,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-24 Listed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+20.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,130 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.