1008 W Saddle Ln · Payson, AZ 85541

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1980 6,098 sqft lot $140/sqft · 39% below area Est $289k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Starter home at an affordable price, will need work, great investment opportunity for a reno loan. Fully fenced and close to amenities. A great contractor at a reasonable value or at least a handyman will be invaluable! It's certainly not major but it does need some love and attention.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Close to amenities
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• CLOSE TO AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.3% in Payson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#44 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $175k implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.68%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,910
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -39.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 W Corral Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (0%)	17mo	$310,000	$248	57
706 W Bridle Path Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	22mo	$335,900	$250	50
406 W Corral Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,372 (+10%)	6mo	$316,000	$230	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $14,956
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $68,607
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $637/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,321

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
905 N Beeline Hwy Payson, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1350	$1,850	$1.37	43d	2	1.37mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $175,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $175,000 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

    This four bed, two bath, 1248 square feet manufactured home in Payson Northwest at 1008 W saddle Ln is a great starter or investment opportunity under $200,000. Built in 1980 on a 0.14 acre lot. It features a carport and ample RV parking with an RV gate. Fully fenced yard and opportunity to personalize your improvement. Located in a good area with multiple new site built homes in the past 3-5 years (4-6 In very close proximity). It has great potential as a renovation project. It's definitely an up and coming neighborhood. Key Features: * Four bedrooms, two baths, 1248 square feet of living space. * 0.14 acres with chain link and wood fencing * One car carport with RV parking available * Situated in Payson, AZ 85541 close to local amenities * Air conditioner * Town of Payson water, sewer, electricity, telephone and television/internet availability. Unlock the potential of this four bed, two bath manufactured home in Payson Northwest In the heart of Payson. Ideal for an investor or someone looking to build sweat equity. It is currently habitable and just needs fresh paint inside and out and new flooring, make it your own! Submit any offer within reason!

16. 2026-05-12
    price $175,000 1185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

    This four bed, two bath, 1248 square feet manufactured home in Payson Northwest at 1008 W saddle Ln is a great starter or investment opportunity under $200,000. Built in 1980 on a 0.14 acre lot. It features a carport and ample RV parking with an RV gate. Fully fenced yard and opportunity to personalize your improvement. Located in a good area with multiple new site built homes in the past 3-5 years (4-6 In very close proximity). It has great potential as a renovation project. It's definitely an up and coming neighborhood. Key Features: * Four bedrooms, two baths, 1248 square feet of living space. * 0.14 acres with chain link and wood fencing * One car carport with RV parking available * Situated in Payson, AZ 85541 close to local amenities * Air conditioner * Town of Payson water, sewer, electricity, telephone and television/internet availability. Unlock the potential of this four bed, two bath manufactured home in Payson Northwest In the heart of Payson. Ideal for an investor or someone looking to build sweat equity. It is currently habitable and just needs fresh paint inside and out and new flooring, make it your own! Submit any offer within reason!

17. 2026-05-11
    status Active 1185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

    This four bed, two bath, 1248 square feet manufactured home in Payson Northwest at 1008 W saddle Ln is a great starter or investment opportunity under $200,000. Built in 1980 on a 0.14 acre lot. It features a carport and ample RV parking with an RV gate. Fully fenced yard and opportunity to personalize your improvement. Located in a good area with multiple new site built homes in the past 3-5 years (4-6 In very close proximity). It has great potential as a renovation project. It's definitely an up and coming neighborhood. Key Features: * Four bedrooms, two baths, 1248 square feet of living space. * 0.14 acres with chain link and wood fencing * One car carport with RV parking available * Situated in Payson, AZ 85541 close to local amenities * Air conditioner * Town of Payson water, sewer, electricity, telephone and television/internet availability. Unlock the potential of this four bed, two bath manufactured home in Payson Northwest In the heart of Payson. Ideal for an investor or someone looking to build sweat equity. It is currently habitable and just needs fresh paint inside and out and new flooring, make it your own! Submit any offer within reason!

18. 2026-05-01
    status Pending 1185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

    This four bed, two bath, 1248 square feet manufactured home in Payson Northwest at 1008 W saddle Ln is a great starter or investment opportunity under $200,000. Built in 1980 on a 0.14 acre lot. It features a carport and ample RV parking with an RV gate. Fully fenced yard and opportunity to personalize your improvement. Located in a good area with multiple new site built homes in the past 3-5 years (4-6 In very close proximity). It has great potential as a renovation project. It's definitely an up and coming neighborhood. Key Features: * Four bedrooms, two baths, 1248 square feet of living space. * 0.14 acres with chain link and wood fencing * One car carport with RV parking available * Situated in Payson, AZ 85541 close to local amenities * Air conditioner * Town of Payson water, sewer, electricity, telephone and television/internet availability. Unlock the potential of this four bed, two bath manufactured home in Payson Northwest In the heart of Payson. Ideal for an investor or someone looking to build sweat equity. It is currently habitable and just needs fresh paint inside and out and new flooring, make it your own! Submit any offer within reason!

19. 2026-03-28
    price $199,999 1185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Starter home at an affordable price, will need work, great investment opportunity for a reno loan. Fully fenced and close to amenities. A great contractor at a reasonable value or at least a handyman will be invaluable! It's certainly not major but it does need some love and attention.

20. 2026-03-28
    price $199,999 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Starter home at an affordable price, will need work, great investment opportunity for a reno loan. Fully fenced and close to amenities. A great contractor at a reasonable value or at least a handyman will be invaluable! It's certainly not major but it does need some love and attention.

21. 2026-03-17
    listed $225,000 Active 1185-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

    This four bed, two bath, 1248 square feet manufactured home in Payson Northwest at 1008 W saddle Ln is a great starter or investment opportunity under $200,000. Built in 1980 on a 0.14 acre lot. It features a carport and ample RV parking with an RV gate. Fully fenced yard and opportunity to personalize your improvement. Located in a good area with multiple new site built homes in the past 3-5 years (4-6 In very close proximity). It has great potential as a renovation project. It's definitely an up and coming neighborhood. Key Features: * Four bedrooms, two baths, 1248 square feet of living space. * 0.14 acres with chain link and wood fencing * One car carport with RV parking available * Situated in Payson, AZ 85541 close to local amenities * Air conditioner * Town of Payson water, sewer, electricity, telephone and television/internet availability. Unlock the potential of this four bed, two bath manufactured home in Payson Northwest In the heart of Payson. Ideal for an investor or someone looking to build sweat equity. It is currently habitable and just needs fresh paint inside and out and new flooring, make it your own! Submit any offer within reason!

22. 2026-03-16
    listed $225,000 Active 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Starter home at an affordable price, will need work, great investment opportunity for a reno loan. Fully fenced and close to amenities. A great contractor at a reasonable value or at least a handyman will be invaluable! It's certainly not major but it does need some love and attention.

23. 2025-10-16
    historical
24. 2025-10-10
    price $119,990
25. 2025-10-06
    price $139,900
26. 2025-09-26
    price $149,900
27. 2025-09-18
    price $159,900
28. 2025-09-14
    price $169,900
29. 2025-09-05
    price $179,900
30. 2025-08-24
    listed $189,900 Active
31. 2016-07-26
    historical
32. 2016-06-02
    listed $129,900
33. 2016-05-23
    historical
34. 2011-03-30
    soldstatus $46,000
35. 2011-03-28
    soldstatus $46,000
36. 2011-03-25
    soldstatus $46,000
37. 2011-03-01
    listed $51,500
38. 2011-03-01
    listed $51,500
39. 2011-01-17
    historical
40. 2010-09-16
    listed $69,900
41. 2010-09-16
    listed $64,900
42. 2004-12-06
    soldstatus $89,000
43. 1986-01-16
    soldstatus $2,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,155 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$518/yr (+$43/mo · 81.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$637
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $5,603
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,345
• After-tax cash flow: $6,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Payson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8740

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Payson, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• City population: 23,382
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+7191.7% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $175,000 CAAR
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-05-01 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $199,999 CAAR
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $199,999 ARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $225,000 CAAR
• 2026-03-16 Listed $225,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $119,990 ARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $139,900 ARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $159,900 ARMLS
• 2025-09-14 Price Changed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2025-08-24 Listed $189,900 ARMLS
• 2016-07-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2016-06-02 Listed $129,900 ARMLS
• 2016-05-23 Listing Removed — NAZMLS
• 2011-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-28 Sold (MLS) $46,000 CAAR
• 2011-03-25 Sold (MLS) $46,000 ARMLS
• 2011-03-01 Listed $51,500 ARMLS
• 2011-03-01 Listed $51,500 CAAR
• 2011-01-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-09-16 Listed $64,900 ARMLS
• 2010-09-16 Listed $69,900 NAZMLS
• 2004-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1986-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $2,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $637 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.