203 S Pinocchio · Horseshoe Bend, AR 72512

$124,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1975 0.67 ac lot Est $142k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

IMMACULATE, Move In Ready Gem on a Double Lot! Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 2 bed/2 bath turnkey property that perfectly balances cozy living w/ incredible outdoor space. From the moment you arrive, you'll love the gorgeous landscaping stretching across 2 spacious lots, offering rare privacy rm to breathe. Enjoy a seamless kitchen/dining combo featuring nice pantry and patio doors to the deck. The generous living rm features it's own set of patio doors leading to deck. Move right in w/ o stress-all kitchen appliances, plus w/ d, are incl. A new roof was installed in 2020. Storage room behind c/p. Large walk in crawl space w/ concrete floors would also be good storm room.

Key facts

• Storage room
• Patio doors
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• GORGEOUS LANDSCAPING
• SEAMLESS KITCHEN DINING COMBO
• PATIO DOORS
• NEW ROOF
• STORAGE ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximate lot size: 0.67 acres (per plans & specs)
• Financial info: Financing available: VA, FHA, Conventional, Rural Development, or Cash
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Sleepy Hollow I

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car carport
• Security: Safe/Storm room
• Utilities: Septic; Public water; Electric provided by co-op; Fiber internet available
• Home design: Frame and rock exterior with masonite; Crawl space foundation
• Construction: Composition roof with pitch
• Exterior features: Deck; Guttering; Paved road access; Level, cleared lot with extra landscaping; Located inside city limits; Subdivision setting (Sleepy Hollow I); Area amenities: tennis courts, playground, party room, picnic area, marina, golf course, fitness/bike trail, airport nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Electric range; Dishwasher; Pantry; Refrigerator stays; Ice maker connection
• Bedrooms: Formal living room (other room listed); Safe/Storm room (other room listed)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling; Central electric heat; Heat pump
• Interior features: Washer and washer stay; Dryer and dryer stay (electric connection); Electric water heater; Smoke detectors; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Sheet rock walls and ceilings; Wallpaper
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 6.2% in Horseshoe Bend — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Izard CountyConsolidated School District (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #171 of 238 in AR (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Izard Co. Cons. Elem. School (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #254 of 454 statewide, top 59%, 270 students, 73% FRL); Izard County Cons Middle Sch (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #156 of 201 statewide, top 78%, 185 students, 69% FRL); Izard Co. Cons. High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 193 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 441 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Izard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Izard County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $125k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,636
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
203 Diamond Ln	0.70mi	2/1.5	1,176 (-8%)	8mo	$118,000	$100	45
909 Arkansas Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,180 (-8%)	10mo	$131,000	$111	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,784
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,997
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72512

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $207	+0% $164	+5% $121	+10% $78
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $112	+0% $164	+5% $215	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $196	base $164	+0.5pp $131	+1.0pp $99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 E Church St Horseshoe Bend, AR	2.0	1.5	1176	$1,300	$1.11	45d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $124,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 New Listing 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 New Listing 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 New Listing 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 New Listing 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 694-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $124,900 New Listing 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$24
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6
• After-tax cash flow: $1,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Izard CountyConsolidated School District
• NCES district ID: 0500021
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $30,245
• Composite: 22.66/100
• National rank: #8047
• State rank: #171 of 238 in AR

Livability — Horseshoe Bend

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14584

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bend, AR
• City population: 2,458
• Population (ZIP): 2,458

Population outlook (Izard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,018 people
• By 2030: 12,761 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 12,331 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 12,041 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 11,516 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 10,549 · -19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Izard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.9) · D 16.0% · R 81.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -65.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.9 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.58%
• Current HPI: 184.0807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+204.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $124,900 CARMLS
• 1997-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $57 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.