4206 38th St · Meridian, MS 39305

$24,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,229 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1900 $20/sqft · 75% below area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come take a look at this great potential rental income property. 2 bed 1 bath house on a large lot near North Hills St.

Key facts

• Built 1900
• Listed 195 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $24k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $707 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $24k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#141 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Meridian Public Schools (town): math 13% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #109 of 130 in MS (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 18 units permitted in Lauderdale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $169 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $735 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lauderdale County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $21,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 40.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 123.74%
• DSCR: 6.51
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,900
• List price: $24,500
• Delta: -75.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3809 35th St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+13%)	21mo	$39,500	$29	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $41,142
• Equity at exit: $3,653

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.71×
• Total profit: $94,080
• Equity at exit: $2,118

Cash invested: $6,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39305

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,195 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$128
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,176/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $300

Max offer price $24,500

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,125
• Closing costs: $735
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3915 30th Ave Unit 1 Meridian, MS	2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	43d	1	0.63mi
3315 N Hills St Meridian, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	43d	8	0.90mi
2705 1/2 45th St Unit C-4 Meridian, MS	2.0	1.0	864	$995	$1.15	43d	1	0.92mi
4907 Shumate Rd Meridian, MS	2.0	1.0	700	$822	$1.18	43d	4	1.04mi
4924 24th Pl Meridian, MS	2.0	1.5	980	$825	$0.84	43d	1	1.38mi
4609 Broadmoor Dr Meridian, MS	2.0	1.0	1050	$995	$0.95	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $24,500 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,500 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,500 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,500 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,500 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $24,500 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $24,500 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $24,500 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $24,500 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $24,500 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $24,500 Active 179 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $24,500 Active 178 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,500 Active 177 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $24,500 Active 176 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $24,500 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Come take a look at this great potential rental income property. 2 bed 1 bath house on a large lot near North Hills St.

16. 2026-04-15
    price $25,500 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Come take a look at this great potential rental income property. 2 bed 1 bath house on a large lot near North Hills St.

17. 2026-03-18
    price $26,500 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Come take a look at this great potential rental income property. 2 bed 1 bath house on a large lot near North Hills St.

18. 2026-01-28
    price $27,500 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Come take a look at this great potential rental income property. 2 bed 1 bath house on a large lot near North Hills St.

19. 2025-12-05
    listed $28,900 Active 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Come take a look at this great potential rental income property. 2 bed 1 bath house on a large lot near North Hills St.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,176 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,176 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,372
• − Property taxes: −$1,176
• − Insurance: −$122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,147
• − Management: −$1,147
• − Depreciation: −$713
• Taxable income: $8,662
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,079
• After-tax cash flow: $6,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meridian Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2802910
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,236
• Composite: 11.87/100
• National rank: #9673
• State rank: #109 of 130 in MS

Livability — Meridian

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #14839

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meridian, MS
• County: Lauderdale County · 42,445 people
• City population: 42,445
• Metro: Meridian, MS
• Population (ZIP): 21,638
• Household income: $67,712
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 791.0

Population outlook (Lauderdale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,158 people
• By 2030: 72,770 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 67,309 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 61,797 · -17.8%
• By 2075: 49,790 · -33.8%
• By 2100: 39,797 · -47.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 36% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lauderdale

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.0% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.3pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+16.0 2016: R+23.0 2012: R+15.5 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.15%
• Current HPI: 123.1214
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Meridian, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-15.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $24,500 EMR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $25,500 EMR
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $26,500 EMR
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $27,500 EMR
• 2025-12-05 Listed $28,900 EMR

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,176 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.