4123 Aspen Ln · Montgomery, AL 36106

$214,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,730 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1971 0.31 ac lot Est $190k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4123 Aspen Lane offers 4 bedrooms and 2 baths on a quiet street with a spacious, fully fenced backyard. Meticulously cared for over the years, this home offers enduring charm, a functional layout, and the opportunity to make it your own.

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Conveniently located
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story brick house; Built by owner-reported source; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; City lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: At least one bedroom on the first level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Carpet and tile flooring; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($576/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,469 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4123 Aspen Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,730 (0%)	2mo	$147,500	$85	98
1848 Cairnbrook Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,700 (-2%)	2mo	$181,000	$106	88
1837 Gatewood Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	1,820 (+5%)	9mo	$183,900	$101	72
1853 Llanfair Rd	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,861 (+8%)	6mo	$190,000	$102	72
1843 Heatherton Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,815 (+5%)	1mo	$199,000	$110	67
4012 Ballentine Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,909 (+10%)	8mo	$235,000	$123	66
4485 White Acres Rd	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,892 (+9%)	2mo	$223,500	$118	65
2015 Mallard Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,798 (+4%)	7mo	$204,000	$113	60
1948 Cottingham Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,881 (+9%)	1mo	$242,000	$129	55
4257 Shamrock Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,832 (+6%)	2mo	$198,000	$108	50
4701 Mitford Cir	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,912 (+10%)	13mo	$230,000	$120	42
4438 Eley Ct	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,972 (+14%)	10mo	$205,000	$104	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-26,143
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $5,893
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36106

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $702/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,614

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $109	+0% $48	+5% $-13	+10% $-74
Rent	-10% $-84	-5% $-18	+0% $48	+5% $114	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $103	base $48	+0.5pp $-8	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1516 Charleton Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1895	$1,650	$0.87	44d	1	0.17mi
4243 Vaughn Rd Unit 1043807P Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1496	$3,360	$2.25	44d	1	0.32mi
4132 Carmichael Rd Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,156	$1.28	14d	10	0.33mi
1845 Young Farm Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,750	$1.21	44d	1	0.63mi
4707 Mitford Cir Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1943	$1,800	$0.93	44d	1	0.68mi
4285 Shamrock Ln Unit 1043850P Montgomery, AL	5.0	2.0	1991	$3,909	$1.96	22d	1	0.71mi
1738 Fairforest Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	2166	$1,895	$0.87	44d	1	0.73mi
4409 McCampbell Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1786	$1,600	$0.90	14d	1	0.73mi
2000 Central Pkwy Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1133	$2,135	$1.88	14d	14	0.84mi
1216 Beechdale Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1495	$1,325	$0.89	44d	1	0.87mi
4041A Beth Manor Dr Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,000	$1.08	22d	20	0.89mi
2311 Cottingham Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1676	$1,595	$0.95	44d	1	0.92mi
3352 Ridgefield Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1932	$1,761	$0.91	22d	1	0.97mi
1229 Karen Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1344	$1,590	$1.18	44d	1	1.09mi
750 S Marquette Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,195	$0.90	44d	1	1.11mi
1216 Karen Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,350	$0.83	14d	1	1.14mi
1154 Lakewood Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1066	$1,350	$1.27	44d	1	1.18mi
5635 Red Barn Rd Unit 1043848P Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1496	$3,390	$2.27	14d	1	1.26mi
1117 Karen Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,195	$0.91	44d	1	1.27mi
572 Farmington Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	2106	$1,495	$0.71	44d	1	1.27mi
908 Greg Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1520	$1,100	$0.72	22d	1	1.30mi
560 Farmington Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	2161	$1,695	$0.78	14d	1	1.30mi
895 Greg Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,600	$1.07	14d	1	1.32mi
3580 McGehee Pl Dr S Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,205	$1.00	44d	1	1.35mi
2495 Meadow Ridge Ln Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1205	$1,199	$1.00	14d	14	1.38mi
844 Sir Michael Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1502	$1,650	$1.10	44d	1	1.40mi
860 Greg Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,295	$0.93	14d	1	1.43mi
2014 Rexford Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,150	$0.72	44d	1	1.44mi
3359 Bedford Ln Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1786	$1,600	$0.90	14d	1	1.45mi
3318 Habersham Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,250	$1.10	14d	1	1.46mi
2651 Clement Curv Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,550	$1.11	22d	1	1.47mi
817 Dumont Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,800	$1.10	14d	1	1.47mi
3346 Bedford Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,295	$1.14	14d	1	1.47mi
3364 Fountain Ln Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1221	$1,099	$0.90	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $214,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,900 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $219,900 Active
18. 2026-05-07
    listed $219,000 Active
19. 2026-04-13
    soldstatus $147,500
20. 2026-04-10
    soldstatus $147,500 Closed 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    4123 Aspen Lane offers 4 bedrooms and 2 baths on a quiet street with a spacious, fully fenced backyard. Meticulously cared for over the years, this home offers enduring charm, a functional layout, and the opportunity to make it your own.

21. 2026-03-31
    historical Contingent 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    4123 Aspen Lane offers 4 bedrooms and 2 baths on a quiet street with a spacious, fully fenced backyard. Meticulously cared for over the years, this home offers enduring charm, a functional layout, and the opportunity to make it your own.

22. 2026-03-30
    status Pending 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    4123 Aspen Lane offers 4 bedrooms and 2 baths on a quiet street with a spacious, fully fenced backyard. Meticulously cared for over the years, this home offers enduring charm, a functional layout, and the opportunity to make it your own.

23. 2026-03-17
    historical Contingent 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    4123 Aspen Lane offers 4 bedrooms and 2 baths on a quiet street with a spacious, fully fenced backyard. Meticulously cared for over the years, this home offers enduring charm, a functional layout, and the opportunity to make it your own.

24. 2026-03-14
    status Active 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    4123 Aspen Lane offers 4 bedrooms and 2 baths on a quiet street with a spacious, fully fenced backyard. Meticulously cared for over the years, this home offers enduring charm, a functional layout, and the opportunity to make it your own.

25. 2026-02-24
    historical Contingent 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    4123 Aspen Lane offers 4 bedrooms and 2 baths on a quiet street with a spacious, fully fenced backyard. Meticulously cared for over the years, this home offers enduring charm, a functional layout, and the opportunity to make it your own.

26. 2026-02-16
    listed $160,000 Active 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    4123 Aspen Lane offers 4 bedrooms and 2 baths on a quiet street with a spacious, fully fenced backyard. Meticulously cared for over the years, this home offers enduring charm, a functional layout, and the opportunity to make it your own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $702 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$179/yr (+$15/mo · 25.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$702
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$3,185
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$764
• After-tax cash flow: $1,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• County: Montgomery County · 190,016 people
• City population: 175,913
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 14,065
• Household income: $69,087
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 876.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 43% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 151.1822
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.29%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+37.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $219,900 MAAR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $219,000 MAAR
• 2026-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $147,500 Public Records
• 2026-04-10 Sold (MLS) $147,500 MAAR
• 2026-03-31 Contingent — MAAR
• 2026-03-30 Pending — MAAR
• 2026-03-17 Contingent — MAAR
• 2026-03-14 Relisted — MAAR
• 2026-02-24 Contingent — MAAR
• 2026-02-16 Listed $160,000 MAAR

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $702 · -7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.