518 Blevins St · Hereford, TX 79045

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1960 1,960 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1,960 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Hereford ISD (town): math 41% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #434 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 23 units permitted in Deaf Smith County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Deaf Smith County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.48%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $16,031
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $46,153
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79045

• Home prices YoY: -11.2%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,049/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $505

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $422	-5% $407	+0% $391	+5% $376	+10% $360
Rent	-10% $312	-5% $352	+0% $391	+5% $431	+10% $470
Rate	-1.0pp $419	-0.5pp $405	base $391	+0.5pp $377	+1.0pp $362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Avenue H Unit 10 Hereford, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,000	$1.33	45d	1	0.45mi
106 Avenue H Unit 10 Hereford, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,000	$1.33	22d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $55,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $59,000 Active 65 DOM
18. 2026-03-26
    price $65,000
19. 2026-03-26
    listed $6,500 Active
20. 2008-02-01
    soldstatus
21. 1993-07-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,049 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,049 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,049
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $4,075
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$978
• After-tax cash flow: $3,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hereford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,593
• Composite: 33.49/100
• National rank: #5446
• State rank: #434 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hereford

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hereford, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,441

Population outlook (Deaf Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,019 people
• By 2030: 17,665 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 17,099 · -5.1%
• By 2050: 16,479 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 14,130 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 10,352 · -42.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 32% White 21% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 58%

Political lean MEDSL · Deaf Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.6) · D 23.8% · R 75.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -46.8pp · 2024: -51.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.6 2020: R+44.0 2016: R+41.1 2012: R+41.9 2008: R+46.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.57%
• Current HPI: 225.7837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $65,000 AARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $6,500 AARMLS
• 2008-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,049 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.