18863 Emerald Summit Dr · Shady Hills, FL 34610

$249,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily · 111 Days on market

Built 2027 Excellent condition 4,196 sqft lot 2-car garage $168/sqft · 20% below area Est $312k · 20% under $117/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pre-Construction. To be built. Perfectly positioned in Spring Hill, Northridge Villas puts nature, recreation, and everyday conveniences right at your fingertips—without the congestion. Located just minutes from the Suncoast Parkway, you'll enjoy easy access to Tampa while still embracing a peaceful, low-maintenance lifestyle. Explore nearby Weeki Wachee Springs State Park, known for its crystal-clear waters, kayaking, and nature trails, or spend the day at SunWest Park and Crews Lake Wilderness Park. Northridge Villas combines resort-style amenities with thoughtfully planned homesites—offering the lifestyle you want in a location you'll love.

Key facts

• Rear-covered porch
• Sunwest park
• Northridge villas

Tags

• NORTHRIDGE VILLAS
• SUNWEST PARK
• CREWS LAKE WILDERNESS PARK
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• REAR-COVERED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Shady Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#467 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shady Hills Elementary School (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 471 students, 77% FRL); Crews Lake Middle School. (math 47% / reading 39%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 834 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 48% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 316 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 120d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,978 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,290
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -19.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18879 Drifting Elm St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,488 (0%)	1mo	$286,115	$192	95
18720 Emerald Summit Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,488 (0%)	0mo	$276,720	$186	91
207 Hartford Ct	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (+1%)	1mo	$270,000	$180	75
366 Barrington Ct	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (+1%)	2mo	$240,000	$160	74
12004 Valley Falls Loop	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (+1%)	6mo	$245,000	$164	67
284 Hartford Ct	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (+1%)	11mo	$270,000	$180	65
276 Rochester St	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (-0%)	6mo	$259,000	$175	63
322 Greenwich Cir	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (+8%)	6mo	$260,000	$161	55
11704 New Haven Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,273 (-14%)	2mo	$215,000	$169	52
447 Greenwich Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,696 (+14%)	6mo	$272,500	$161	47
195 Hartford Ct	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-14%)	10mo	$255,900	$200	46
11464 Inman Ct	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-14%)	2mo	$210,000	$164	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-53,246
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-62,479
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.7 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $289,495 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 108 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34610

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,080 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$117
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,335

Max offer price $220,818

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-115	+0% $-202	+5% $-288	+10% $-374
Rent	-10% $-366	-5% $-284	+0% $-202	+5% $-119	+10% $-37
Rate	-1.0pp $-76	-0.5pp $-138	base $-202	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
156 Rose Bud Ln Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.5	1875	$2,100	$1.12	63d	1	0.28mi
18321 Edgewood Dr Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1633	$2,800	$1.71	120d	1	0.79mi
240 Center Oak Cir Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	32d	1	0.87mi
11425 Billingham Blvd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,100	$1.23	64d	1	1.10mi
17524 Medley Ave Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.0	1344	$1,800	$1.34	69d	1	1.16mi
11379 Deercroft Ct Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$1,800	$0.99	120d	1	1.22mi
367 Argyll Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,900	$1.33	120d	1	1.43mi
446 Argyll Dr Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1809	$2,100	$1.16	120d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty includedGreen / energy efficient features: efficient appliances, HVAC, lighting, thermostat, and windowsGreen indoor air quality features: MERV 8+ HVAC filter, low/no-VOC flooring and paint/finish, ventilationGreen water conservation: drip irrigation, reclaimed water irrigation, low-flow fixtures
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,016Total monthly HOA: $117 (total annual fees $1,404)Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Ryan Homes (monthly fee $117; includes grounds maintenance and other services)Association amenities include pickleball court(s)Community features: dog park, park, playground, pool, street lightsPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with 19x19 dimensionsDrivewayGarage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableCable availableWater available
• Home design: Residential villaOne storyEast-facingPre-construction (projected completion: 2026-12-31)Model: BEECHWOOD
• Construction: Block, stucco, and frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilder: RYAN HOMES (license CBC1257565)
• Exterior features: Covered porchSidewalksPaved lotAsphalt road frontageDrip irrigation and reclaimed water irrigation (water-conservation landscaping)Fl. friendly / native landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRange
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenLiving room/dining room comboStone countertopsThermostatTray ceilingsWalk-in closetsENERGY STAR qualified windowsSmoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundryInside utility room

HOA detail $117/mo · $1,404/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $249,990 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $249,990 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $249,990 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $249,990 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $249,990 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $249,990 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $249,990 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $249,990 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $249,990 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $249,990 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 88 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $249,990 Active 87 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $249,990 Active 86 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $249,990 Active 85 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    pricedays on market $249,990 Active 83 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $267,990 Active 82 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $267,990 Active 81 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $267,990 Active 80 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $267,990 Active 79 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $267,990 Active 77 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $267,990 Active 76 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $267,990 Active 75 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $267,990 Active 74 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $267,990 Active 73 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $267,990 Active 72 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $267,990 Active 71 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $267,990 Active 70 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $267,990 Active 69 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $267,990 Active 68 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $267,990 Active 67 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $267,990 Active 66 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $267,990 Active 65 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $267,990 Active 63 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $267,990 Active 62 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $267,990 Active 61 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $267,990 Active 60 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $267,990 Active 57 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $267,990 Active 55 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $267,990 Active 54 DOM
45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $267,990 Active 52 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $267,990 Active 50 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $267,990 Active 49 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $267,990 Active 48 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $267,990 Active 47 DOM
50. 2026-07-20
    days on market $267,990 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,997
• − Management: −$1,997
• − HOA: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$6,715
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,612
• After-tax cash flow: $-807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some cosmetic updates to enhance its resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Updating the flooring — Upgrading the flooring can add value and make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and make it more attractive to both buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Shady Hills Elementary School D- FL #1,223/2,144 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle Crews Lake Middle School. D- FL #331/571 Nat'l #5,160/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Shady Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #8437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Hills, FL
• County: Pasco · 570,045 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,544
• Household income: $73,878
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.13%
• Current HPI: 342.8714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty includedGreen / energy efficient features: efficient appliances, HVAC, lighting, thermostat, and windowsGreen indoor air quality features: MERV 8+ HVAC filter, low/no-VOC flooring and paint/finish, ventilationGreen water conservation: drip irrigation, reclaimed water irrigation, low-flow fixtures
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,016Total monthly HOA: $117 (total annual fees $1,404)Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Ryan Homes (monthly fee $117; includes grounds maintenance and other services)Association amenities include pickleball court(s)Community features: dog park, park, playground, pool, street lightsPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with 19x19 dimensionsDrivewayGarage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableCable availableWater available
• Home design: Residential villaOne storyEast-facingPre-construction (projected completion: 2026-12-31)Model: BEECHWOOD
• Construction: Block, stucco, and frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilder: RYAN HOMES (license CBC1257565)
• Exterior features: Covered porchSidewalksPaved lotAsphalt road frontageDrip irrigation and reclaimed water irrigation (water-conservation landscaping)Fl. friendly / native landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRange
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenLiving room/dining room comboStone countertopsThermostatTray ceilingsWalk-in closetsENERGY STAR qualified windowsSmoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundryInside utility room

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $267,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid