6129 Lockport Rd · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,194 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1940 0.47 ac lot Est $228k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on almost a half acre in the Town of Niagara is where you will find this 3 bedroom, 1 bath home. Interior of the home has been recently painted & new flooring can be found in the entryway & into the first floor laundry room. Spacious living room allows space to sit back & relax & offers enough room for a table to dine. Convenient first floor bedroom is ideal for ranch-style living. Full bathroom is also located on the 1st floor, which entails a walk-in shower. Second floor offers two nicely sized bedrooms. Charming front porch, blooming landscaping, storage shed & huge lot complete this home!

Key facts

• Half acre
• Full bathroom
• New flooring

Tags

• HALF ACRE
• RECENTLY PAINTED
• NEW FLOORING
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story listing (stories total listed as 1); Vinyl siding; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Existing (year built details)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) / storage; Rectangular residential lot; Road frontage on city street / main thoroughfare; Lot dimensions approximately 57 x 355

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first level
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom; Two additional bedrooms on second level; One additional bedroom on first level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal living room; Other (see remarks); Bedroom on main level; Has full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Niagara-Wheatfield Central School District (rural): math 64% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #163 of 590 in NY (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Edward Town Middle School (math 37% / reading 60%, grade C-, #300 of 729 statewide, top 41%, 736 students, 47% FRL); Niagara-Wheatfield Senior High School (math 95% / reading 97%, grade A+, #68 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,092 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 25% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.39%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,054
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5406 Mayle Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,208 (+1%)	2mo	$120,000	$99	75
6163 N Whitham Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-2%)	13mo	$225,000	$191	72
5225 Mayle Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,222 (+2%)	18mo	$280,000	$229	57
6167 N Whitham Dr	0.33mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-10%)	10mo	$206,000	$191	55
3210 Woodland Ave	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,248 (+4%)	4mo	$170,000	$136	52
5910 Edgewood Dr	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,273 (+7%)	9mo	$140,000	$110	52
7375 Sunnydale Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,092 (-8%)	8mo	$250,000	$229	49
6200 Woodside Pl	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,022 (-14%)	17mo	$60,000	$59	48
6953 Ralph Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	18mo	$226,600	$197	47
7000 Ralph Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,084 (-9%)	10mo	$290,000	$268	46
7399 Sunnydale Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+12%)	11mo	$352,000	$263	36
5230 Grauer Rd	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,366 (+14%)	22mo	$255,000	$187	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-11,387
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,841
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,242/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,344

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $215	+0% $176	+5% $136	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $52	-5% $114	+0% $176	+5% $238	+10% $300
Rate	-1.0pp $246	-0.5pp $211	base $176	+0.5pp $140	+1.0pp $103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $139,900 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-05-20
   listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,242 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,242 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$3,242
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
• − Management: −$1,504
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$52
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12
• After-tax cash flow: $2,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara-Wheatfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620850
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $57,051
• Composite: 57.53/100
• National rank: #1067
• State rank: #163 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,242 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.