1038 W Oak Grove Rd · Hernando, MS 38632

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,789 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 190 Days on market

Built 1993 10 ac lot $168/sqft · 14% below area Est $415k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to own 10 beautiful acres in Hernando, MS! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect split floor plan with a great blend of peaceful country living with city conveniences just minutes away in Hernando Square and local shops and restaurants! Inside, you'll find a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings and a comfy fireplace, a formal dining room, and an inviting eat-in kitchen. The primary suite is privately situated on one side of the home and features two walk-in closets, an en-suite bath with a private water closet. The guest bedrooms are spacious, providing plenty of room for guests or home office needs. Outside, you can enjoy the serene setting from the charming front porch, envision your ideal back deck, and take advantage of the horse barn, perfect for equestrian lovers, hobby farming, or extra outdoor storage needs. This home offers incredible potential. With a little TLC, it can be renovated or updated to reflect a new homeowner's personal style, creating the perfect custom retreat on acreage. Ask about Renovation Home Loan Products available to help bring your vision to life! Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Split floor plan
• Primary suite

Tags

• 10 BEAUTIFUL ACRES
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• INVITING EAT-IN KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.2% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#44 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.94%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $414,515
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -27.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3079 Lake Grove Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,953 (+9%)	1mo	$335,000	$172	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-39,067
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-42,462
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38632

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 403
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,714 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,041/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,365

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $446	-5% $361	+0% $276	+5% $191	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $62	-5% $169	+0% $276	+5% $383	+10% $491
Rate	-1.0pp $427	-0.5pp $352	base $276	+0.5pp $198	+1.0pp $119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2441 Memphis St Hernando, MS	2.0	2.5	1520	$2,200	$1.45	2d	1	0.90mi
2159 Timberlane St Hernando, MS	4.0	2.5	2150	$4,500	$2.09	5d	1	0.95mi
249 Vaiden Ridge Cv Hernando, MS	3.0	2.5	2240	$2,300	$1.03	2d	1	1.27mi
1670 Timber Creek Dr Hernando, MS	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,945	$1.16	44d	1	1.31mi
2948 Mount Pleasant S Hernando, MS	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,090	$1.34	18d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $300,000 Pending 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 177 DOM
11. 2025-12-05
    listed $300,000 Active 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    Rare opportunity to own 10 beautiful acres in Hernando, MS! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect split floor plan with a great blend of peaceful country living with city conveniences just minutes away in Hernando Square and local shops and restaurants! Inside, you'll find a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings and a comfy fireplace, a formal dining room, and an inviting eat-in kitchen. The primary suite is privately situated on one side of the home and features two walk-in closets, an en-suite bath with a private water closet. The guest bedrooms are spacious, providing plenty of room for guests or home office needs. Outside, you can enjoy the serene setting from the charming front porch, envision your ideal back deck, and take advantage of the horse barn, perfect for equestrian lovers, hobby farming, or extra outdoor storage needs. This home offers incredible potential. With a little TLC, it can be renovated or updated to reflect a new homeowner's personal style, creating the perfect custom retreat on acreage. Ask about Renovation Home Loan Products available to help bring your vision to life! Schedule your tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,041 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,370 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$329/yr (+$27/mo · 16.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,041
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,606
• − Management: −$2,606
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$1,711
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$411
• After-tax cash flow: $3,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 31,374
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 31,374
• Household income: $93,583
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 24.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.49%
• Current HPI: 176.8843
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.43%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Listed $300,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,041 · +165.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.