23595 Nectar Crest Hts · Splendora, TX 77372

$186,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,495 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 5,135 sqft lot $124/sqft · 16% below area Est $221k · 16% under $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the beautiful community of Presswoods in Splendora TX! This home offers functional layout, beautiful, covered patio backyard, and spacious living areas ready for a buyer's personal touch. Convenient location with easy access to major roadways. Schools within walking distance of neighborhood. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Convenient location
• 5,135 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• COVERED PATIO BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $186k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 548 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,963 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.15%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,469
• List price: $186,000
• Delta: -16.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23165 Teakwood Hills Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-0%)	3mo	$229,990	$154	78
14319 Leafy Willow Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,470 (-2%)	1mo	$226,990	$154	78
23231 Teakwood Hills Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+5%)	0mo	$222,990	$142	74
23157 Teakwood Hills Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+3%)	2mo	$234,990	$153	74
14363 Leafy Willow Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-4%)	2mo	$218,990	$153	73
14340 Leafy Willow Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+5%)	2mo	$235,425	$150	68
14327 Leafy Willow Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+5%)	3mo	$234,990	$149	67
14609 Ivy Floral Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-14%)	2mo	$208,990	$163	65
13667 Kit Run	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+4%)	2mo	$234,990	$151	59
24114 Chirp St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-14%)	1mo	$221,990	$173	57
23512 Skyward Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+11%)	1mo	$248,990	$150	50
13674 Kit Run	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,331 (-11%)	2mo	$204,990	$154	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-46,867
• Equity at exit: $27,733

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-61,559
• Equity at exit: $16,082

Cash invested: $52,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 548
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$975
• Tax from tax record: −$608 /mo · $7,298/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,158

Max offer price $145,963

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-162	-5% $-214	+0% $-267	+5% $-320	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-411	-5% $-339	+0% $-267	+5% $-195	+10% $-123
Rate	-1.0pp $-173	-0.5pp $-220	base $-267	+0.5pp $-315	+1.0pp $-364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,500
• Closing costs: $5,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $186,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $186,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $186,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $186,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $186,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $186,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $186,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $186,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $186,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $186,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $186,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $186,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $186,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $186,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $186,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-03-30
    listed $222,900 Active 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Welcome to the beautiful community of Presswoods in Splendora TX! This home offers functional layout, beautiful, covered patio backyard, and spacious living areas ready for a buyer's personal touch. Convenient location with easy access to major roadways. Schools within walking distance of neighborhood. Schedule your showing today!

17. 2025-08-30
    historical $1,975
18. 2025-08-19
    listed $1,975

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,298 · $608/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,298 · $608/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,419
• − Property taxes: −$7,298
• − Insurance: −$930
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$5,411
• Taxable loss: −$6,238
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,497
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for a buyer's personal touch. Painting the exterior and making some landscaping improvements could further enhance its resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding and roof — Painting the exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can increase the home's resale value by making it more attractive to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding and roof — Painting the exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can increase the home's resale value by making it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11186.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $222,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-30 Rental Removed $1,975 HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed for Rent $1,975 HARMLS

Property tax history

+274.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,298 · +406.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.