Meadow Creek Plan · Lenox, MI 48048

$87,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 874 Days on market

Poor condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 874 days

🏗️ New construction. The $87,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $45,993.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $740 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Haven Community Schools (suburban): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #305 of 540 in MI (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $318 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 874 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $77,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 874 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.95%
• DSCR: 4.07
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $45,993
• List price: $87,900
• Delta: 91.11%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
57865 Woodcreek	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	12mo	$65,000	$41	55
33006 Primrose Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-14%)	13mo	$86,000	$69	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $39,696
• Equity at exit: $6,858

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.40×
• Total profit: $95,334
• Equity at exit: $3,977

Cash invested: $12,878 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48048

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$57 /mo · $690/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $740

Break-even live

Break-even rent $402

Max offer price $45,993

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,498
• Closing costs: $1,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32631 Cary Ln N New Haven, MI	4.0	2.0	1056	$1,339	$1.27	2d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,900 Active 874 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,900 Active 873 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,900 Active 872 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,900 Active 871 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $87,900 Active 869 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,900 Active 865 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $87,900 Active 864 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $87,900 Active 863 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $87,900 Active 860 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $87,900 Active 859 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $87,900 Active 858 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $87,900 Active 857 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $87,900 Active 856 DOM
14. 2024-01-26
    listed $87,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,576
• − Property taxes: −$690
• − Insurance: −$230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,285
• − Management: −$1,285
• − Depreciation: −$1,338
• Taxable income: $8,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,079
• After-tax cash flow: $6,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property is a conceptual rendering of a manufactured home, requiring extensive renovation to become a real property with significant potential for resale or rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior rendering — The rendering suggests significant work is needed to make the property a real property

Value-add opportunities

• Both Actual property renovation — Significant renovation is needed to make the property a real property and increase its value for resale or rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior rendering · The rendering suggests significant work is needed to make the property a real property	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$15,000–50,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Actual property renovation — Significant renovation is needed to make the property a real property and increase its value for resale or rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,247
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6575
• State rank: #305 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lenox

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, MI
• Population (ZIP): 11,065

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Italian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.74%
• Current HPI: 242.3675
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-01-26 Listed $87,900 Zillow