210 Stoney Creek Cir · Durham, NC 27703

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Built 2010 7,405 sqft lot $500/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Clayton Manufactured Home. 3 bedroom and 2 bath Single Wide. Clear Title in Hand. This is a great opportunity for a first time home buyer to enjoy this family orientated community in the heart of Durham. In Mineral Springs Park Lot rent is $500 monthly. Tenants Lease expires on November 1st

Key facts

• Mineral springs park
• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots

Tags

• MINERAL SPRINGS PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $807 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 3.0% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#15 in NC, #1,411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1103 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.59%
• DSCR: 3.56
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $36,338
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $80,092
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27703

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1103
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,307 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$500
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,286

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1013 Red Wing Dr Durham, NC	4.0	3.0	2395	$2,475	$1.03	14d	1	0.80mi
707 Spoonbill Trl Durham, NC	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,600	$1.05	14d	1	0.88mi
2055 Tanners Mill Dr Durham, NC	3.0	2.5	2437	$2,030	$0.83	21d	1	1.00mi
4009 Omer Ln Durham, NC	3.0	3.0	1760	$2,175	$1.24	23d	1	1.01mi
2088 Tanners Mill Dr Durham, NC	3.0	3.0	1925	$900	$0.47	23d	1	1.03mi
3 Mooring Ct Durham, NC	4.0	2.5	3144	$2,495	$0.79	23d	1	1.04mi
409 Burrell Rd Durham, NC	3.0	2.5	1693	$1,875	$1.11	23d	1	1.11mi
1 Moonstone Ct Durham, NC	3.0	2.5	1685	$2,185	$1.30	23d	1	1.11mi
115 Glenview Ln Durham, NC	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,495	$1.00	23d	1	1.13mi
1026 Sweet Cream Ct Durham, NC	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,195	$1.15	14d	1	1.34mi
2161 Mica Ridge Durham, NC	3.0	3.0	1931	$2,200	$1.14	23d	1	1.48mi
3215 Gypsum Dr Durham, NC	3.0	3.0	1931	$2,195	$1.14	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $500 · $6,000/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-06-18
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-05
   listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$1,122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,215
• − Management: −$2,215
• − HOA: −$6,000
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $9,626
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,310
• After-tax cash flow: $7,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Durham Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701260
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,143
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6457
• State rank: #132 of 178 in NC

Livability — Durham

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #1411

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Durham County · 288,747 people
• City population: 288,747
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 63,458
• Household income: $89,317
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1685.0

Population outlook (Durham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 368,962 people
• By 2030: 402,686 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 468,677 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 531,727 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 660,446 · +79.0%
• By 2100: 739,971 · +100.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Durham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+61.9) · D 80.2% · R 18.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.0pp toward D · 2008: 51.9pp · 2024: 61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+61.9 2020: D+62.4 2016: D+60.4 2012: D+52.7 2008: D+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.81%
• Current HPI: 206.7413
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.84%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-18 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $65,000 TMLS