1206 W Shelby St · Falmouth, KY 41040

$92,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Good condition 6,652 sqft lot Est $90k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Super Cute, Updated Three Bedroom 2 bath cottage in the heart of Downtown Falmouth! Ample off street parking. Would make a great first home or rental property. Excellent Price.

Key facts

• Off street parking
• 6,652 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• OFF STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl clad windows; Shingle roof; Existing structure; Approximately 0.15-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (11 x 10); Bedroom 2 (11 x 10); Bedroom 3 (10 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Central air conditioning; Forced air heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $93k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $93k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#183 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Pendleton County (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #110 of 165 in KY (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Northern Elementary School (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #242 of 676 statewide, top 37%, 493 students, 54% FRL); Phillip Sharp Middle School (math 17% / reading 31%, grade F, #194 of 217 statewide, top 90%, 497 students, 61% FRL); Pendleton County High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 698 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($642 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pendleton County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $92,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.56%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,856
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
517 Pendleton St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,386 (+11%)	22mo	$99,900	$72	43
204 Montjoy St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-14%)	12mo	$23,000	$21	34
418 Montjoy St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	22mo	$80,000	$74	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $69,334
• Equity at exit: $83,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.28×
• Total profit: $189,492
• Equity at exit: $180,484

Cash invested: $26,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41040

• Home prices YoY: 11.9%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$487
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$116 /mo · $1,394/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $813

Max offer price $92,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,225
• Closing costs: $2,787
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $92,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 176-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $92,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,204
• − Property taxes: −$1,394
• − Insurance: −$464
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,137
• − Management: −$1,137
• − Depreciation: −$2,703
• Taxable income: $2,178
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$523
• After-tax cash flow: $3,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This property is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and would be a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pendleton County
• NCES district ID: 2104740
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $47,416
• Composite: 25.08/100
• National rank: #7536
• State rank: #110 of 165 in KY

Livability — Falmouth

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #9081

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Falmouth, KY
• County: Pendleton · 10,860 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 6,998
• Household income: $51,511
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3.5

Population outlook (Pendleton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,640 people
• By 2030: 13,035 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 11,596 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 10,074 · -26.1%
• By 2075: 7,095 · -48.0%
• By 2100: 5,074 · -62.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pendleton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 17.5% · R 81.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.1pp toward R · 2008: -28.4pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.5 2016: R+57.3 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.75%
• Current HPI: 269.7591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $92,900 NKMLS