29774 Liars Loop Unit Cabins 1-3 - Lot 1 · Bent Tree Harbor, MO 65355

$201,750

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 277 Days on market

Built 1984 10,454 sqft lot $168/sqft · 26% below area Est $274k · 26% under $75/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cabin 1 & Cabin 2 are single-unit layouts, each with two full-size beds and a hide-a-bed, kitchenette with 4-burner cooktop, refrigerator, and toaster oven, plus full bath. Cabin 3 is a single-room unit with one king-size bed, kitchenette with 4-burner cooktop and refrigerator, toaster oven, and full bath. Just down the road from Truman State Park Marina giving you quick and easy access to Truman Lake, while also being close to Drake Harbor where you can access the Lake of the Ozarks. All three cabins have been successful rentals and have a long clients list. Would make for a great income producing opportunity.

Key facts

• Full bath with tub
• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1984

Tags

• KITCHENETTE WITH COOKTOP
• FULL BATH WITH TUB
• QUICK ACCESS TO TRUMAN LAKE
• CLOSE TO DRAKE HARBOR
• INCOME PRODUCING OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $202k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-423 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (30.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (34.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 277 days — a 12% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $132,492 (34.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 277 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.98%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,239
• List price: $201,750
• Delta: -26.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $24,879
• Equity at exit: $119,888

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $96,331
• Equity at exit: $211,660

Cash invested: $56,490 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,058
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$252 /mo · $3,026/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,860

Max offer price $140,605

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-283	-5% $-353	+0% $-423	+5% $-492	+10% $-562
Rent	-10% $-527	-5% $-475	+0% $-423	+5% $-370	+10% $-318
Rate	-1.0pp $-321	-0.5pp $-371	base $-423	+0.5pp $-475	+1.0pp $-528

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,438
• Closing costs: $6,052
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $201,750 Active 277 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $201,750 Active 275 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $201,750 Active 274 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $201,750 Active 273 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $201,750 Active 272 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $201,750 Active 270 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $201,750 Active 269 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $201,750 Active 266 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $201,750 Active 265 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $201,750 Active 264 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $201,750 Active 263 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $201,750 Active 260 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $201,750 Active 259 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $201,750 Active 258 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $201,750 Active 257 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $201,750 Active 256 DOM
17. 2025-09-16
    listed $201,750 Active 624-char remark

    Show marketing remark (624 chars)

    Cabin 1 & Cabin 2 are single-unit layouts, each with two full-size beds and a hide-a-bed, kitchenette with 4-burner cooktop, refrigerator, and toaster oven, plus full bath. Cabin 3 is a single-room unit with one king-size bed, kitchenette with 4-burner cooktop and refrigerator, toaster oven, and full bath. Just down the road from Truman State Park Marina giving you quick and easy access to Truman Lake, while also being close to Drake Harbor where you can access the Lake of the Ozarks. All three cabins have been successful rentals and have a long clients list. Would make for a great income producing opportunity.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,301
• − Property taxes: −$3,026
• − Insurance: −$1,009
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,272
• − Management: −$1,272
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$5,869
• Taxable loss: −$8,750
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,100
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bent Tree Harbor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-16 Listed $201,750 WCAR