170 Black Swan Pl · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$359,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,878 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2009 6,817 sqft lot $192/sqft · 6% below area Est $382k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful one story brick home in Sterling Ridge with nice curb appeal. Split floor plan for privacy with master on the rear of the home and secondary bedrooms located on the side of the home. A gaslog fireplace provides the focal point for the den. Big island kitchen with walk-in pantry, granite counters, under-mount stainless sink, wood stained cabinets and a skylight that brings in lots of natural light. Tile flooring graces the entry, kitchen, breakfast area and den. Spacious master bedroom suite has dual sinks, tub and separate tile shower. Large private back yard that backs up to a greenbelt, so no neighbors in the back. Study with large window overlooks the front grounds. Secondary bedrooms are spacious and share a full bath. Great schools and prime location. And May Valley park is located within walking distance for your kids, and family, to enjoy! Won't last long!

Key facts

• Greenbelt privacy
• Covered patio
• 6,817 sq ft lot

Tags

• WHOLE-HOUSE BATTERY BACKUP
• GREENBELT PRIVACY
• WHOLE-HOUSE WATER FILTRATION
• COVERED PATIO
• TRELLISED GARDEN BEDS
• CUSTOM PANTRY SHELVING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community playground; Walking trails; Curbs in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces east; Entry on the first level
• Construction: Built in 2009; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fenced backyard; Greenbelt lot feature; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16x12); Bedroom on the first floor (12x11); Bedroom on the first floor (11x10); Additional bedroom space for a total of 4 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on the first floor; Bathroom on the first floor; Double vanity(s); Soaking tub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanities; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s); Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; One fireplace; 11 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on the first floor; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-820 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (40.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (36.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tom R Ellisor El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 492 students, 40% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,086 (40.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.76%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,361
• List price: $359,900
• Delta: -5.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 N Hawkhurst Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,863 (-1%)	1mo	$389,900	$209	86
146 S Star Ridge Cir	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+0%)	2mo	$445,000	$236	74
79 Black Swan Pl	0.06mi	3/2.0	2,083 (+11%)	12mo	$389,000	$187	69
18 Griffin Hill Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	2,043 (+9%)	0mo	$349,000	$171	55
16 Florentino Vine Pl	0.60mi	3/2.0	2,050 (+9%)	2mo	$420,000	$205	55
158 S Star Ridge Cir	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-14%)	4mo	$330,000	$206	52
8618 Blueberry Ash St	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,849 (-2%)	4mo	$314,990	$170	52
14 Crabtree Ct	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,986 (+6%)	14mo	$430,000	$217	50
6 Sheltered Arbor Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,043 (+9%)	7mo	$434,000	$212	46
8642 Blueberry Ash St	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,708 (-9%)	6mo	$299,990	$176	45
8634 Blueberry Ash St	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,708 (-9%)	6mo	$299,990	$176	44
9115 E Lakeside Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,694 (-10%)	11mo	$305,000	$180	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $137,910
• Equity at exit: $324,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.33×
• Total profit: $436,512
• Equity at exit: $699,207

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,289 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$591 /mo · $7,086/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-820

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,326

Max offer price $215,086

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-616	-5% $-718	+0% $-820	+5% $-922	+10% $-1,023
Rent	-10% $-1,001	-5% $-910	+0% $-820	+5% $-729	+10% $-639
Rate	-1.0pp $-639	-0.5pp $-728	base $-820	+0.5pp $-913	+1.0pp $-1,008

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
146 Black Swan Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2535	$2,495	$0.98	23d	1	0.08mi
139 Hawkhurst Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2563	$2,950	$1.15	25d	1	0.26mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,328	$1.48	3d	1	0.43mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,371	$1.50	12d	1	0.53mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30013 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,360	$1.50	11d	1	0.56mi
30000 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$1,767	$1.50	4d	49	0.58mi
28911 Hidden Lk W Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2279	$1,846	$0.81	23d	1	0.87mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	44d	1	0.90mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,975	$1.40	25d	1	0.90mi
9396 Woodlands Pkwy Unit EASR Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,649	$1.31	25d	1	0.91mi
9396 Woodlands Pkwy Unit EASR Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,649	$1.31	13d	1	0.91mi
28618 Hidden Cove Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2430	$2,046	$0.84	13d	1	0.95mi
10851 W Montfair Blvd The Woodlands, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$2,339	$2.19	13d	45	1.01mi
131 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,330	$1.27	6d	1	1.10mi
139 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,846	$1.22	13d	1	1.12mi
30685 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$1,748	$1.49	2d	45	1.20mi
7910 Alset Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1897	$2,320	$1.22	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $359,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $359,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $374,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $374,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $385,000 Active 1001-char remark
17. 2026-04-30
    historical
18. 2026-03-30
    price $389,900
19. 2026-03-11
    listed $395,000 Active
20. 2019-05-14
    soldstatus
21. 2019-05-09
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    Beautiful one story brick home in Sterling Ridge with nice curb appeal. Split floor plan for privacy with master on the rear of the home and secondary bedrooms located on the side of the home. A gaslog fireplace provides the focal point for the den. Big island kitchen with walk-in pantry, granite counters, under-mount stainless sink, wood stained cabinets and a skylight that brings in lots of natural light. Tile flooring graces the entry, kitchen, breakfast area and den. Spacious master bedroom suite has dual sinks, tub and separate tile shower. Large private back yard that backs up to a greenbelt, so no neighbors in the back. Study with large window overlooks the front grounds. Secondary bedrooms are spacious and share a full bath. Great schools and prime location. And May Valley park is located within walking distance for your kids, and family, to enjoy! Won't last long!

22. 2019-05-06
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    Beautiful one story brick home in Sterling Ridge with nice curb appeal. Split floor plan for privacy with master on the rear of the home and secondary bedrooms located on the side of the home. A gaslog fireplace provides the focal point for the den. Big island kitchen with walk-in pantry, granite counters, under-mount stainless sink, wood stained cabinets and a skylight that brings in lots of natural light. Tile flooring graces the entry, kitchen, breakfast area and den. Spacious master bedroom suite has dual sinks, tub and separate tile shower. Large private back yard that backs up to a greenbelt, so no neighbors in the back. Study with large window overlooks the front grounds. Secondary bedrooms are spacious and share a full bath. Great schools and prime location. And May Valley park is located within walking distance for your kids, and family, to enjoy! Won't last long!

23. 2019-04-25
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    Beautiful one story brick home in Sterling Ridge with nice curb appeal. Split floor plan for privacy with master on the rear of the home and secondary bedrooms located on the side of the home. A gaslog fireplace provides the focal point for the den. Big island kitchen with walk-in pantry, granite counters, under-mount stainless sink, wood stained cabinets and a skylight that brings in lots of natural light. Tile flooring graces the entry, kitchen, breakfast area and den. Spacious master bedroom suite has dual sinks, tub and separate tile shower. Large private back yard that backs up to a greenbelt, so no neighbors in the back. Study with large window overlooks the front grounds. Secondary bedrooms are spacious and share a full bath. Great schools and prime location. And May Valley park is located within walking distance for your kids, and family, to enjoy! Won't last long!

24. 2019-04-25
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    Beautiful one story brick home in Sterling Ridge with nice curb appeal. Split floor plan for privacy with master on the rear of the home and secondary bedrooms located on the side of the home. A gaslog fireplace provides the focal point for the den. Big island kitchen with walk-in pantry, granite counters, under-mount stainless sink, wood stained cabinets and a skylight that brings in lots of natural light. Tile flooring graces the entry, kitchen, breakfast area and den. Spacious master bedroom suite has dual sinks, tub and separate tile shower. Large private back yard that backs up to a greenbelt, so no neighbors in the back. Study with large window overlooks the front grounds. Secondary bedrooms are spacious and share a full bath. Great schools and prime location. And May Valley park is located within walking distance for your kids, and family, to enjoy! Won't last long!

25. 2019-04-18
    listed $245,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    Beautiful one story brick home in Sterling Ridge with nice curb appeal. Split floor plan for privacy with master on the rear of the home and secondary bedrooms located on the side of the home. A gaslog fireplace provides the focal point for the den. Big island kitchen with walk-in pantry, granite counters, under-mount stainless sink, wood stained cabinets and a skylight that brings in lots of natural light. Tile flooring graces the entry, kitchen, breakfast area and den. Spacious master bedroom suite has dual sinks, tub and separate tile shower. Large private back yard that backs up to a greenbelt, so no neighbors in the back. Study with large window overlooks the front grounds. Secondary bedrooms are spacious and share a full bath. Great schools and prime location. And May Valley park is located within walking distance for your kids, and family, to enjoy! Won't last long!

26. 2014-05-30
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2014-05-30
    soldstatus
28. 2014-05-12
    status Pending, Continue to Show
29. 2014-04-28
    status Option Pending
30. 2014-04-26
    listed $210,000 Active
31. 2009-11-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,086 · $591/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,086 · $591/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$7,086
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,197
• − Management: −$2,197
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable loss: −$16,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,947
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Woodlands, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+71.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $359,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $374,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $385,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $389,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $395,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-05-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-18 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2014-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-04-26 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2009-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,086 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.