125 Hogsback Rd · Richfield Springs, NY 13439

$55,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1900 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Three bedroom, two bath home offered. It was a long term rental, needs some flooring and updating. It has spacious rooms, a nice layout, country setting but not isolated. Richfield Springs School. Easy drive to town or to Canadarago Lake. The house has been vacant for a number of years, condition of systems is unknown, being sold as is.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#328 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Richfield Springs Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #575 of 755 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $830 appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.87%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $37,509
• Equity at exit: $20,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.85×
• Total profit: $90,076
• Equity at exit: $28,087

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13439

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,533/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $556

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $55,000 Active
3. 2024-08-13
   historical
4. 2024-02-26
   listed $75,000 Active
5. 2023-12-24
   historical
6. 2023-07-26
   listed $107,000 Active
7. 2023-06-23
   historical
8. 2023-06-23
   historical
9. 2023-01-26
   listed $119,000 Active
10. 2023-01-26
    listed $119,000 Active
11. 2022-12-24
    historical
12. 2022-10-13
    price $119,000
13. 2022-08-31
    listed $130,000 Active
14. 2009-10-13
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,533 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,533 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,533
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,202
• − Management: −$1,202
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $6,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,472
• After-tax cash flow: $5,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richfield Springs Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624570
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,046
• Composite: 40.3/100
• National rank: #7785
• State rank: #575 of 755 in NY

Livability — Richfield Springs

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #328
• US rank: #5444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,667
• Population (ZIP): 3,667

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.51%
• Current HPI: 336.0863
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+22.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $55,000 Global MLS
• 2024-08-13 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2024-02-26 Listed $75,000 Global MLS
• 2023-12-24 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2023-07-26 Listed $107,000 Global MLS
• 2023-06-23 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2023-06-23 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2023-01-26 Listed $119,000 Global MLS
• 2023-01-26 Listed $119,000 UNYREIS
• 2022-12-24 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2022-10-13 Price Changed $119,000 CNYIS
• 2022-08-31 Listed $130,000 CNYIS
• 2009-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,533 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.